The College Football Playoff is on track to double from 12 teams to 24 as soon as the 2027 season, and a new analysis from Sports Illustrated shows what that would mean for this fall: 26 more teams would still be in the hunt heading into Week 7, including both of Iowa's Big Ten and Big 12 programs.
Sports Illustrated published its latest "Eliminator" breakdown on October 17, projecting which programs would remain alive for a playoff bid under a 24-team field compared with the current 12-team format. The short answer for Iowa fans: more hope, earlier in the season, for more teams.
Iowa and Iowa State both make the cut in a 24-team field
Under the current 12-team playoff, Sports Illustrated lists 11 Big Ten teams still alive, and Iowa is one of them. The Hawkeyes join Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, UCLA and Wisconsin as programs with realistic paths to the field.
The real change comes in Ames. Iowa State is eliminated in the 12-team format, according to Sports Illustrated, but the Cyclones would be "also alive" in a 24-team field alongside Colorado, Kansas, TCU, UCF and West Virginia. In other words, a season that would currently end in a decent bowl game would still carry playoff stakes deep into November.
Sports Illustrated notes the Big 12 could be one of the biggest long-term winners of expansion, because a conference packed with coin-flip games means teams would likely need to finish only around 9-3 most years to stay in the conversation.
How the numbers break down
According to Sports Illustrated's analysis, 81 teams, or 59% of the Football Bowl Subdivision, would still be alive for a playoff bid in a 24-team format heading into Week 7. The current 12-team setup leaves 55 teams, or 40% of FBS, in the hunt.
Of the 26 additional alive teams, 17 come from the Power 4 conferences plus Notre Dame. That works out to roughly 88% of power-conference schools still holding out hope in a 24-team world, compared with 43 Power 4 programs that look viable today.
Sports Illustrated was blunt about who benefits most: the power conferences. "If you have any questions about who this expansion is really for, the numbers paint a clear picture," the outlet wrote, pointing out that Power 4 teams would essentially get a free pass for at least two losses.
Expansion appears close to official
The move is not just hypothetical. The Boston Globe reported on October 16 that a "handshake agreement" with ESPN has brought college football closer to a 24-team playoff, citing an Associated Press source.