Anti-Trump Republicans Target Iowa Faith Voters

Washington insiders and progressive activists are joining forces to chip away at President Donald Trump's support among religious voters, and Iowa is officially on their radar.

The Lincoln Project, a group founded by self-described 'Never Trump' Republicans including George Conway, and Vote Common Good (VCG), a progressive evangelical organization, are working together to court white evangelicals and white Catholics. These are the same demographics that handed Trump significant victories in 2016 and remain critical to his reelection hopes.

According to POLITICO, the groups are concentrating their initial efforts on six battleground states: North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida. But Sarah Lenti, executive director of the Lincoln Project, confirmed that Iowa is being eyed as an emerging battleground that could be added to their target list.

Groups Push Faith-Based Pitch to Sway Conservatives

The strategy relies on leveraging faith to persuade lifelong Republicans to abandon the top of the ticket. Lenti told POLITICO that the current moment presents a unique opportunity.

If there was ever a time when Republicans, especially people of faith can be moved, it's probably now. This is about doing the right thing for our country and that goes back to embracing Biblical principles, such as loving and caring for each other.

Doug Pagitt, a progressive evangelical pastor who founded VCG, was candid about the challenge of getting religious conservatives to vote for Joe Biden. He described it as a two-step process for many voters: first, letting go of the reflexive impulse to vote Republican, and then taking the big step of supporting a Democrat.

I respect the fact that many people feel they've been conservatives or Republicans their whole lives and to push them to vote for Biden, that's like pushing them to abandon their identity, Pagitt said. We don't want to do that.

Handwritten Postcards and Virtual Town Halls

VCG is planning a postcard campaign targeting religious voters in swing states. The handwritten notes will feature slogans like Faith, not fear. Hope, not hate. Love, not lies and passages from 1 Corinthians 13, along with personal messages from other voters.

Pagitt described the approach as personal rather than polished. It's not a slick mailer, it's a handwritten card saying, 'Hey, I'm Doug from Minneapolis. I hope your faith is meaningful to you,' he explained.

The two groups are also hosting a virtual town hall Wednesday featuring Pagitt, Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson, evangelical minister Rob Schenck, Society of Christian Ethics president David Gushee, and journalist Amy Sullivan. An onslaught of digital, radio, and television ads is also planned.

Polling Shows Trump's Religious Support Remains Strong

Despite the coordinated campaign, Trump's backing among white evangelicals remains formidable. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in June found that 72 percent of white evangelicals approve of Trump's job performance, down just five points since January. More importantly, 82 percent of white evangelicals still plan to vote for Trump in November.

That means even some voters who disapprove of Trump's performance are sticking with him, a reality that underscores the deep bond between religious conservatives and the Republican president.

The alliance between white evangelicals and the GOP has held firm for decades, and Trump's first term has seen little erosion. Prior to this spring, the most notable public split between Trump and his prominent Christian supporters came over his push to withdraw troops from Syria.

What This Means for Iowa

For Iowa voters, the Lincoln Project's interest in the Hawkeye State signals how competitive the race has become. Trump carried Iowa by nearly 10 points in 2016, but recent statewide polling shows a tighter contest. Biden began advertising in Texas in mid-July, and similar moves could follow for Iowa.

The groups hope to move 4 to 5 percent of disaffected Republican voters in their target states before Election Day. Since 2018, VCG has focused on identifying 50,000 persuadable voters in key swing states.

Pagitt was realistic about their limits, acknowledging that single-issue voters focused on abortion are unlikely to budge. If someone is a single-issue voter on abortion and they still think Republicans are better than Democrats on the issue, that's probably not someone we're going to get, he said.

Lenti said the Lincoln Project plans to flood the zone with information, targeting not just religious voters but also veterans and seniors who may be wavering.

Evangelicals and people of faith are just people, and so a lot of our ads are going to touch all people, not one particular constituency.

As outside groups ramp up their efforts to influence Iowa's faith community, voters here will face a clear choice this November. The question is whether the pressure campaign from Washington operatives and progressive pastors will resonate, or whether Iowa's religious conservatives will stand by the president who delivered on conservative judicial appointments, religious liberty protections, and pro-life policies.