Big Ten 2026 Preview: Ohio State Poised to Overcome Brutal Schedule, Iowa Looks to Beat Win Total

As the 2026 college football season approaches, the Big Ten enters the year as the nation's premier conference, having produced three consecutive national champions. Ohio State and Oregon emerge as the class of the conference, while Iowa fans have reason for optimism despite a downgrade in the Hawkeyes' power rating.

This preview breaks down win totals, key storylines, and betting angles for all 18 Big Ten teams, with a special focus on Iowa's prospects under longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz.

Ohio State faces toughest schedule in program history but remains a title contender

The Buckeyes play what analysts call arguably the toughest schedule in the program's 136-year history, facing five teams ranked in the Top 15 nationally. Yet Ohio State's win total of 9.5 still offers value, according to projections that have the Buckeyes favored in all 12 games.

Ohio State returns eight starters on offense, headlined by wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, widely considered the best player in college football. Quarterback Julian Sayin returns, and the Buckeyes welcome four transfers who started at other FBS programs last season.

The defense also brings back eight full-time starters from the FBS level. Ohio State's consistency is remarkable: with the exception of 2011, the program has not lost three regular-season games since 2004, a streak of 20 straight seasons.

“I think it's safe to assume the Buckeyes will easily have one of the best offenses in the country,” the analyst wrote.

Iowa Hawkeyes: Can Ferentz's consistency pay off again?

For Iowa fans, the 2026 season brings cautious optimism. The Hawkeyes bring in a program-record 16 transfers, many from the FCS level. Head coach Kirk Ferentz gets the benefit of the doubt for his consistency, though the team's power rating has been downgraded this year.

Iowa's win total sits at 7.5, with the Over priced at -132. Projections suggest the Hawkeyes could be favored in as many as nine games, making the Over a lean despite the downgrade.

Penn State's new coach faces high expectations and tough questions

Matt Campbell arrives at Penn State after a late coaching search, but questions remain about whether he's a significant upgrade over James Franklin. Campbell's Iowa State teams historically performed best when expectations were low and routinely disappointed when expectations were high.

A 9.5-win total, the highest of any first-year coach, sets the bar extremely high. Campbell brings 23 Iowa State transfers, including 13 full-time starters led by quarterback Rocco Becht. However, those players managed just an 8-4 record against Big 12 competition last fall and now face a tougher conference schedule.

Campbell lost as an outright favorite 17 times in his last five years at Iowa State, including at least three losses each season.

USC's travel woes could sink win total

Lincoln Riley's most complete USC team faces a daunting schedule, including games against the Big Ten's three best teams: Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. The Trojans are at least 5.5-point underdogs in all three contests.

USC's struggles traveling east are well documented: since 2012, the Trojans are 2-16 straight up in central and eastern time zones. Road games at Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Penn State's whiteout game present serious challenges.

Big Ten Championship odds and power ratings

Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana rank as the conference's top three teams in power ratings, all placing in the Top 4 nationally. Each would be favored by at least a touchdown over USC, the fourth-best team in the conference.

While the Big Ten has surpassed the SEC at the top, the bottom of the conference remains weak. Minnesota, Northwestern, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan State, and Purdue would all rank last in the SEC according to power ratings.

Complete 2026 Big Ten win total preview

Illinois: Win total 6.5 (Over -150). Coach Bret Bielema has led Illinois to a school-record 19 combined wins over two years. Despite a downgrade, the Over is a lean.

Indiana: Win total 10.5 (Under -114). The defending champions return for a third straight playoff appearance under Curt Cignetti, but projections lean Under.

Maryland: Win total 5.5 (Under -142). The Terrapins return a nation-high 14 starters but 5.5 wins may be too many.

Michigan: Win total 8.5 (Under -184). Kyle Whittingham replaces the disgraced Sherrone Moore, but a brutal schedule including four Top 10 teams makes the Under attractive.

Michigan State: Win total 4.5 (Under -176). The Pat Fitzgerald hire draws skepticism after his 4-20 record in his final two years at Northwestern.

Minnesota: Win total 6.5 (Under -160). The Gophers won eight games last year despite ranking 101st in yards per play.

Nebraska: Win total 6.5 (Under -142). Another 6-6 season appears likely with games against Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon.

Northwestern: Win total 5.5 (Under -114). A brutal schedule and an ill-timed Week 2 bye hurt the Wildcats despite a new $800 million stadium.

Oregon: Win total 10.5 (Under -130). Dante Moore returns at quarterback, and the Ducks return all four starters on the defensive line. Oregon could become the fourth different Big Ten team in four years to win a national title.

Purdue: Win total 3.5 (Under -154). Barry Odom inherits a mess with only seven returning starters. The Boilermakers might be favored in just one game.

Rutgers: Win total 4.5 (Over -144). Despite returning only seven starters, Rutgers could improve, though they may be underdogs in as many as eight games.

UCLA: Win total 6.5 (Under -128). Bob Chesney is the favorite coaching hire of the season, and the Bruins should double their win total from last year's 3-9 mark.

Washington: Win total 7.5 (Over -158). Quarterback Demond Williams' brief transfer portal stint raises questions, but the Huskies could be favored in nine of their first 10 games.

Wisconsin: Win total 6.5 (Over -114). Transfer quarterback Colton Joseph brings rushing ability, and the schedule is more favorable without Indiana, Ohio State, or Oregon.

What does this mean for Iowa football fans?

For Iowa supporters, the 2026 season offers a familiar mix of hope and caution. Ferentz's track record of consistency provides a solid foundation, and the influx of 16 transfers could inject new talent into the roster. With a win total of 7.5 and the potential to be favored in nine games, the Hawkeyes have a realistic path to exceeding expectations.

As the Big Ten continues to dominate the national landscape, Iowa's ability to compete in the middle tier of the conference will determine whether they can cash the Over and make a push toward playoff contention.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel and BetMGM as of August 14, 2026.