Big Ten Pick 6: Iowa Looks to Cover at Michigan, Plus Conference Showdowns and a Battle in LA

Big Ten conference play kicks off this weekend with a slate of intriguing matchups, including a classic Midwest grudge match as Iowa travels to Michigan, a cross-country trek for UCLA, and a high-scoring showdown in Los Angeles between Oregon and USC. After navigating the non-conference season at .500 against the spread and 14-4 overall, here is a look at the six biggest games on the board, with an eye toward what matters for Iowa fans and the conference landscape.

Iowa at Michigan (-5.5): Can the Hawkeyes Cover on the Road?

The Hawkeyes opened the season with a characteristically tight 16-13 victory over Iowa State, a game that felt like the first real Kirk Ferentz contest of the year. Now, Iowa heads to Ann Arbor for its first in-conference test under the veteran head coach.

Michigan opened as a 3-point favorite, but the line has moved to 5.5, a shift that raises eyebrows. The Wolverines steadied themselves with a win over Oklahoma after a shaky non-win against Western Michigan, but questions remain about the quality of that Sooners squad.

Given Iowa's defensive identity and Ferentz's knack for keeping games low-scoring and close, the points look valuable. Expect a field-goal battle, as is tradition in these contests.

Prediction: Michigan 20, Iowa 17

Minnesota at Washington (-10): Huskies Look to Build Momentum

Washington enters conference play with questions about health and offensive execution, though last week's performance against Eastern Washington showed improvement. Injuries in the backfield remain a concern, but the return of Rashid Williams and the gradual comeback of center Landen Hatchett should help stabilize the unit.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is a bit of an unknown. The Gophers blew out Eastern Illinois and Akron but looked uncompetitive against Mississippi State. Running back Darius Taylor's health is in question, which could limit the ground game that head coach P.J. Fleck prefers to lean on.

Washington's defense should keep the Gophers in check, and if the Huskies can finish drives, they have a good shot at their first against-the-spread win of the season.

Prediction: Washington 27, Minnesota 20

Northwestern at Indiana (-23.5): Hoosiers Big Favorites at Home

Northwestern has been a pleasant surprise, with wins over Colorado and South Dakota State behind an improved defense and running game. Indiana, however, has found a reliable answer at quarterback in Josh Hoover, who has thrown 10 touchdowns without an interception.

The Hoosiers have a tendency to pull starters rather than run up the score, and Northwestern is built to keep games relatively low-scoring. The spread is large, but the Wildcats should keep this one respectable.

Prediction: Indiana 38, Northwestern 20

UCLA at Maryland (+1.5): Bruins Face Cross-Country Test

Bob Chesney has gotten off to a strong start at UCLA with decisive wins over Cal and Purdue, but a 2,300-mile road trip with an early kickoff presents a new challenge. Maryland struggled against Virginia Tech last week, though quarterback Malik Washington has been solid overall.

The talent matchup looks even on paper, and on a neutral field, the Bruins would be the pick. But the travel and hostile environment make this a tough spot for UCLA.

Prediction: Maryland 31, UCLA 30

Wisconsin at Penn State (-10): Nittany Lions Look to Cover

Wisconsin was hammered by Notre Dame, the biggest difference between these two teams' resumes. Penn State, under Matt Campbell, has shown the ability to run and defend, much like his successful Iowa State teams.

Expect the Badgers to struggle moving the ball against a stout Nittany Lions defense. Penn State should cover fairly easily.

Prediction: Penn State 28, Wisconsin 13

Oregon at USC (+3): High-Scoring Battle in Los Angeles

Oregon has looked shaky defensively after losing coordinators on both sides of the ball, while USC's Jayden Maiava has put up vintage Lincoln Riley numbers. The Trojans' defense, however, does not look playoff-caliber, and Oregon's offense has not been the issue.

With an over/under of 62.5, the highest total in the country this week, this game has the makings of a shootout. It is a tough call, but the points are tempting.

Prediction: USC 35, Oregon 34

Key Takeaways for Iowa Fans

Iowa's game at Michigan is the one to watch locally, with the Hawkeyes getting more than a field goal as underdogs. The Hawkeyes' defense should keep them in the game, and a low-scoring affair favors the road team covering the spread.

Elsewhere, the conference slate features a mix of blowouts and toss-ups, with Washington, Indiana, and Penn State looking like the safest picks to cover. The Oregon-USC game is the wildcard, with points expected to come in bunches.