Big Ten Rivals' Stumbles Could Open Door for Michigan State's Bowl Push
Michigan State's path to a bowl game looks significantly clearer than it did just two weeks ago, thanks in large part to surprising losses by several of its upcoming Big Ten opponents.
The Spartans handled their early-season business, beating Toledo 30-20 in Week 1 and dominating Eastern Michigan 35-7 on Saturday. Those wins have boosted Michigan State's bowl game odds from 32.7% to 59.4%, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index. But the increase has as much to do with what other teams have done as what the Spartans have accomplished.
Rutgers' Shocking Loss to UMass
The most stunning result came from Rutgers, which fell to UMass, a program widely considered the worst in the FBS. The Minutemen went 0-12 last year and were outscored 89-13 in games against Iowa and Missouri in 2025. ESPN's SP+ metric even ranked Michigan Division II schools Ferris State and Grand Valley State ahead of UMass before the game.
It wasn't close. UMass, which scored no more than 21 points against any FBS opponent last year, dropped 37 on the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is now 0-2 after also losing to Boston College. Michigan State doesn't face Rutgers until the regular-season finale, but the Spartans should be clear favorites by then.
Oregon Looks Beatable
Michigan State will still be an underdog when it travels to Oregon in the penultimate game of the regular season, but the Ducks have shown real vulnerability. Oregon tumbled 15 spots to No. 21 in the rankings after losing on the road to Oklahoma State, a team that opened its season with a loss to Tulsa.
If Oklahoma State, another first-year coach situation, can beat Oregon, Michigan State has reason for hope. The Ducks also struggled against Boise State the week before, trailing 17-7 late in the first half and needing a late push just to tie the game at 24.
Illinois Underwhelming Ahead of Homecoming Matchup
Illinois' 31-27 loss to Duke on Saturday is less shocking than the other upsets, but it still raises questions. Duke is the reigning ACC champion, though a much different team this year after losing starting quarterback Darian Mensah and 1,000-yard receiver Cooper Bartake to the transfer portal.
Illinois also looked shaky in its opener against UAB, holding just a one-point lead at halftime before completing a Hail Mary. Michigan State faces Illinois on Oct. 10 during its homecoming game.
Michigan and Washington Showing Cracks
Michigan erased some Week 1 concerns with a statement win over Oklahoma, returning to No. 19 in the rankings. But the Wolverines needed a one-point win over Western Michigan to open the season, revealing an offense that is clearly underperforming despite a very good defense.
Washington is also below expectations. The Huskies are 2-0 but haven't won by the margins expected, beating Washington State 24-10 and Utah State just 16-14. ESPN's FPI ranks those opponents as two of the worst three teams in the rebuilt Pac-12.
What This Means for Michigan State
The Spartans still have work to do, but the schedule that looked daunting two weeks ago now appears more navigable. With Rutgers struggling, Oregon showing vulnerability, and Illinois underwhelming, Michigan State's path to bowl eligibility has opened up considerably.
Head coach Jonathan Smith's squad has taken care of business against lesser opponents. Now, with several Big Ten rivals stumbling, the Spartans have a genuine opportunity to exceed expectations this season.