Big Ten Teams Poised to Cover Big Spreads in Week 1 Thursday Night Games
The college football season kicks into high gear Thursday night with a slate of games that should feature plenty of blowouts, and several Big Ten programs look ready to make statements against overmatched opponents. After a 2-3 start to the season last week, these picks focus on the fundamentals: strong defenses, weak opponents, and teams that historically dominate FCS competition.
What to Watch in Thursday Night College Football
Week 1 Thursday games often separate contenders from pretenders, and this year's lineup offers several matchups where the talent gap is significant. For Iowa fans, the most relevant takeaway comes from Rutgers, which beat UMass by 40 points last season and should replicate that success at home.
Rutgers vs. UMass: The Headliner
Line: Rutgers -28.5
Rutgers enters this game as a heavy favorite, and for good reason. UMass has struggled mightily since moving up to FBS, closing last season with losses of 31 points to Bowling Green, 28 to Ohio, 42 to Northern Illinois, and 34 to Akron. Rutgers, meanwhile, has shown it can dominate lesser competition.
Iowa beat UMass by 40 last season, demonstrating the gap between quality Big Ten programs and the Minutemen. Rutgers should be good for at least 40 points in this one.
Illinois Looks to Continue Opening Day Dominance
Line: Illinois -27.5
Unlike Minnesota, which tends to start slow, Illinois has a history of crushing opponents in season openers. The Fighting Illini hammered Western Illinois 52-3 to start last year, beat Eastern Illinois 45-0 in 2024, and topped Wyoming 38-6 in 2022.
UAB is still rebuilding under head coach Alex Mortensen, and the Blazers' defense allowed 42 points or more five times last year, including 56 in a 32-point loss at Tennessee. Expect Illinois to cover comfortably.
Minnesota and Missouri Should Hit the Over
Eastern Illinois at Minnesota, Total: 51.5
Minnesota has a reputation for sluggish openers, but the Gophers have consistently blown out FCS opponents. Last year's 66-0 win over Northwestern State followed a slow start against Buffalo, and PJ Fleck's squad put up 48 on Rhode Island the year before. Eastern Illinois can score a bit, which should help push this total over.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri, Total: 54.5
Missouri beat Central Arkansas 61-6 to start last season and topped Murray State 51-0 in 2024. The Tigers have new parts to integrate, but Arkansas-Pine Bluff's run defense ranked 114th in the FCS last year, making another blowout likely.
Utah Ready to Set the Tone Under New Leadership
Line: Utah -34.5
New Utah head coach Morgan Scalley will want to make a statement in his debut. The Utes beat Cal Poly 63-9 last season and dominated most of their schedule outside of BYU and Texas Tech. Idaho opened its season with a heartbreaking loss to Cal Poly, and things won't get easier in Salt Lake City.
Week 1 Thursday Night Picks Summary
- Utah -34.5 vs. Idaho
- Over 51.5: Eastern Illinois at Minnesota
- Over 54.5: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri
- Illinois -27.5 vs. UAB
- Rutgers -28.5 vs. UMass
Consensus lines are based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.