Buttigieg Eyes 2028 Run, But Iowa Voters Remember 2020 Caucus

Pete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary who shocked the political world by winning the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses, says he is leaning toward another presidential run in 2028. The announcement comes as early polling shows him as a top contender, though Iowa conservatives and political observers remain skeptical about his appeal in a state that has shifted sharply to the right.

In an interview on the podcast The Diary of a CEO, Buttigieg said he is “more inclined than not” to run again, citing fatherhood as a factor that has changed his decision-making. He and his husband, Chasten, adopted twins in 2021. “That’s changed all of my equations,” Buttigieg said. “It’s just something that you really sit with and take seriously, which you should.”

But for Iowa voters, the memory of 2020 is complicated. Buttigieg’s narrow victory in the Iowa caucuses, which were plagued by technical failures and delayed results, was a high point for his campaign. Yet the state has since become a Republican stronghold, with President Donald Trump winning Iowa by double digits in 2020 and 2024. Many Iowans now view the Democratic primary as irrelevant to their state’s political future.

What the Polls Say About Buttigieg in 2028

Despite Iowa’s Republican tilt, early national polling suggests Buttigieg would enter a 2028 Democratic primary as a serious contender. A July Emerson College survey put him in first place with 19 percent support, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17 percent and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 8 percent. A University of New Hampshire poll from February also showed Buttigieg leading with 20 percent and a 72 percent favorability rating.

However, the polling is volatile. A Manhattan Institute survey from early July placed Buttigieg third at 13 percent, behind Harris at 19 percent and Newsom at 15 percent. A California-focused poll from UC Berkeley had Buttigieg in fourth place at 11 percent. The inconsistency reflects a field where 16 percent of Democratic voters remain undecided, and the first primary is still more than 17 months away.

Prediction Markets Are Less Optimistic

While polls show Buttigieg surging, prediction markets have been slower to embrace him. As of early August, Polymarket listed Newsom as the favorite for the Democratic nomination at 19 percent, followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15 percent and Senator Jon Ossoff at 14 percent. Buttigieg’s odds hovered in the mid-single digits, lagging behind his polling gains.

This gap between polling and betting markets suggests that political insiders and donors are not yet convinced Buttigieg can translate early enthusiasm into a winning coalition. For Iowa conservatives, this raises questions about whether Buttigieg’s appeal is a media-driven phenomenon or a genuine political force.

Can Buttigieg Win Over Iowa Conservatives?

Buttigieg’s 2020 victory in Iowa was built on a coalition of moderate and college-educated voters, but the state’s political landscape has changed dramatically. Republicans now control every statewide office and both chambers of the legislature. The Iowa caucuses, once a kingmaker in presidential politics, have lost influence after the Democratic National Committee restructured the primary calendar.

“Iowa is no longer the proving ground it once was for Democrats,” said Republican strategist Colin Coley. “Buttigieg’s 2020 win here was a moment, not a movement. The state has moved on.”

Buttigieg has tried to position himself as a Midwestern moderate, frequently appearing on Fox News to debate immigration, energy policy, and the Trump administration. He has called himself a “Buttigieg Democrat,” avoiding labels like progressive or establishment. But his support for policies like the Green New Deal and his tenure in the Biden administration may alienate Iowa voters who prioritize energy independence and agricultural interests.

The Black Voter Problem

One of Buttigieg’s biggest challenges is his weakness among Black voters, a key Democratic constituency. A Manhattan Institute poll found zero percent of Black respondents naming him as their choice for 2028. This mirrors his 2020 campaign, where he struggled to gain traction with Black voters in South Carolina, ultimately leading to his withdrawal after a fourth-place finish.

“He is clearly trying to fix that gap,” one unnamed Democratic strategist told The Hill. But for Iowa conservatives, this weakness is a reminder that Buttigieg’s appeal is narrow, even within his own party.

What Iowa Voters Should Watch For

As the 2028 race takes shape, Iowa voters should pay attention to how Buttigieg navigates the anti-establishment mood within the Democratic Party. Progressive candidates like Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders are drawing large crowds with a “Fighting Oligarchy” message, while establishment figures like Harris and Newsom are seen as tied to the Biden administration’s failures.

Buttigieg’s 2020 identity as a small-town mayor taking on Washington still resonates with some voters, but the party’s leftward drift may leave him without a clear lane. For Iowans who value limited government and individual liberty, Buttigieg’s candidacy represents the same progressive agenda that has driven the state away from the Democratic Party.

“The Democratic nominee in 2028 has to be someone Washington didn’t create and can’t control,” Coley said. “Buttigieg is a creature of the Biden administration. That’s a hard sell in Iowa.”

FAQ: Buttigieg and the 2028 Race

Is Pete Buttigieg definitely running for president in 2028?

No. Buttigieg has said he is “more inclined than not” to run, but he has not made a formal announcement. His comments on the podcast signal a shift from previous guarded answers, but he stopped short of committing.

How does Buttigieg’s 2020 Iowa win affect his 2028 chances?

His 2020 win gave him name recognition and a base of support, but Iowa has since become a Republican stronghold. The state’s influence in the Democratic primary has also diminished due to calendar changes, making his 2020 victory less relevant.

What are Buttigieg’s biggest weaknesses for 2028?

His main weaknesses include low support among Black voters, a lack of enthusiasm from prediction markets, and the challenge of positioning himself as an outsider while being tied to the Biden administration. He also faces a crowded field with strong progressive and establishment alternatives.

Photo: Newsweek