Can Iowa's Favorite Underdogs Crash the College Football Playoff in 2026?
The 12-team College Football Playoff has been a game-changer for smaller programs, guaranteeing a spot for a non-power conference team every season. For Iowa fans who love a good underdog story, the 2026 season promises plenty of drama as several mid-major programs look to make history and win their first-ever CFP game.
Boise State, James Madison, and Tulane have all earned bids in the first two years of the expanded format. Now, with the 2026 season underway, four non-power programs stand out as the most likely candidates to punch their ticket to the big dance. Here is a look at which teams have the best shot at crashing the playoff.
Which non-power schools are favorites to earn CFP bids in 2026?
Several programs have positioned themselves for a breakthrough year. From the Mountain West to the AAC, these teams have the talent, coaching, and scheduling to make a serious run at the College Football Playoff.
UNLV Rebels: Dan Mullen's squad is ready to break through
Dan Mullen turned heads in his first season at UNLV, winning 10 games and nearly reaching the Mountain West title game. Now in year two, the Rebels look poised to take the next step. Mullen, who led Florida to an SEC title game in his third season, could reach a conference championship even faster in Las Vegas.
The Rebels have a quarterback battle brewing between former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold and Michigan transfer Alex Orji. Whoever wins the job will have plenty of weapons, including leading rusher Jai'Den Thomas, who racked up 985 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. UNLV also added several transfer receivers, including Troy Stellato from Kentucky and Amorion Walker from Middle Tennessee State.
Defense remains the biggest question mark. UNLV finished 117th in total defense last year, giving up 28 points per game. But with four starters returning, including Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu and Tre Fulton, the unit should improve.
Boise State Broncos: New conference, same expectations
Boise State enters a new era in the revitalized Pac-12, joining Oregon State, Washington State, and several other former Mountain West programs. The Broncos have won 17 conference championships in school history and show no signs of slowing down.
Head coach Spencer Danielson enters his fourth season with a 24-8 record. He returns starting quarterback Maddux Madsen and a talented backfield featuring Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines. The defense also brings back a strong linebacking corps with Boen Phillips, Jayden Virgin-Morgan, and Jake Ripp.
The Broncos face a tough test in Week 1 against No. 2 Oregon on the road. But with a manageable schedule after that, Boise State has a clear path to the playoff.
Navy Midshipmen: A dark horse with a favorable schedule
Navy has quietly become one of the most consistent programs in the country. Fifth-year head coach Brian Newberry has posted back-to-back double-digit win seasons, including an 11-2 finish last year.
The Midshipmen lost quarterback Blake Horvath, but Braxton Woodson looks ready to step in. He averaged an impressive 9.4 yards per carry last season and led Navy to a comeback win over USF in the fourth quarter. The defense returns six players from a unit that finished 54th in rush defense, including all three leading tacklers.
Navy's schedule is favorable, with only a road trip to UTSA looking like a potential stumbling block. Even a loss to No. 4 Notre Dame on Oct. 31 wouldn't hurt the Midshipmen's playoff chances.
North Dakota State Bison: The FBS newcomer with championship pedigree
North Dakota State's move to the FBS is one of the most exciting stories in college football. The Bison have won 10 FCS national championships and now join the Mountain West after paying a $12.5 million entrance fee.
Head coach Tim Polasek has a 26-3 record and led the Bison to a national title in his first season. The Bison have historically performed well against FBS opponents, going 9-5 since 2004, including a win over Iowa in Kinnick Stadium in 2016.
Quarterback Nathan Hayes is expected to take over for Cole Payton, who is now with the Philadelphia Eagles. The defense returns leading tackler Donovan Woolen, who had 86 tackles and three interceptions last year.
What does this mean for Iowa fans?
While Iowa's own Hawkeyes are battling in the Big Ten, many Iowa fans have a soft spot for programs like North Dakota State, which has a strong regional following. The Bison's success against Iowa in the past adds an extra layer of intrigue to their playoff push.
For fans who love rooting for the underdog, this year's CFP race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. Whether it's UNLV's high-powered offense, Boise State's tradition of excellence, Navy's disciplined approach, or North Dakota State's championship pedigree, there is no shortage of compelling storylines.
Frequently asked questions about the 2026 College Football Playoff
How many non-power teams make the College Football Playoff?
Under the current 12-team format, one spot is guaranteed for the highest-ranked champion from a non-power conference. Additional non-power teams can earn at-large bids if they rank high enough in the selection committee's rankings.
Has a non-power team ever won a CFP game?
No. In the first two years of the 12-team playoff, Boise State, James Madison, and Tulane earned bids but all lost in the first round. A non-power team has yet to advance past the opening round.
When is Selection Sunday for the 2026 College Football Playoff?
Selection Sunday is scheduled for early December, one full week before the Army-Navy game. This means Navy's rivalry matchup with Army will have no impact on the Midshipmen's playoff standing.
John Damon is a sports contributor for Just The News Iowa.