Can Mary Peltola Flip Alaska's Senate Seat? What Iowa Voters Should Watch

Alaska's U.S. Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive contests of the 2026 midterms, and the outcome could determine which party controls the Senate. With Republican Senator Dan Sullivan facing Democrat Mary Peltola, the race has national implications that reach far beyond the Last Frontier, including for Iowans watching the balance of power in Washington.

In Tuesday's primary, Peltola led Sullivan with 47.8 percent of the vote to his 43.3 percent, with nearly 80 percent of ballots counted, according to the Associated Press. A third candidate, another Republican named Dan Sullivan, took 2.5 percent. Alaska's unique election system sends the top four finishers to the general election, regardless of party, and uses ranked-choice voting in November.

Why Alaska's Senate Race Matters for Senate Control

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats must flip four seats to take control, with Vice President JD Vance serving as the tie-breaker in a 50-50 chamber. Alaska is one of the Democrats' top targets, alongside Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

If Democrats flip Alaska, they would still need to win at least one other double-digit Trump state to claim a majority. That makes the Alaska race a critical piece of the national puzzle, and Iowa voters should pay attention because the outcome could shift the Senate's direction on issues like agriculture, energy, and judicial confirmations.

Polling Shows a Toss-Up Race

Recent polls paint a mixed picture. A Data for Progress survey from early August showed Peltola leading Sullivan in the final round of ranked-choice voting, 53 percent to 47 percent. Another poll from Alaska Survey Research found Peltola with a narrow 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent edge. However, a New York Times/Siena College poll from June gave Sullivan a 2-point lead, 47 percent to 45 percent, though it did not model ranked-choice outcomes.

Nate Silver wrote on X that Peltola is “slightly ahead” in his polling average, noting that the mix of polls leans Democratic. Joseph Warren, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Anchorage, called the race “definitely competitive” but cautioned that Alaska is difficult to poll due to its vast geography and sparse population.

Prediction Markets Favor Peltola, but Not by Much

As of Wednesday morning, Kalshi gave Peltola a 54 percent chance of winning, with Sullivan at 48 percent. Polymarket showed similar numbers: Peltola at 52 percent, Sullivan at 47 percent. Prediction markets aggregate real-money wagers and reflect trader sentiment, but they do not guarantee outcomes.

Alaska's Independent Streak Could Decide the Race

Alaska is not as ideologically conservative as its voting record suggests, according to Warren. “Alaskans have particular concerns around environmental management and resource developments that have traditionally benefited Republicans,” he told Newsweek. Peltola has tried to distance herself from the national Democratic brand on issues like oil development, which could help her with independent voters.

Local issues, especially the decline of salmon runs and controversy over trawling in the Bering Sea, are front and center. “It's not an issue that's really a left-right issue,” Warren said. “Exactly how that plays out is going to have a big impact on the race.”

Alaska's Last Democratic Senator Lost to Sullivan

Alaska last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, when Mark Begich won, but he lost to Sullivan in 2014. Since then, Republicans have held the seat. Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020, and 15 points in 2016, underscoring the state's Republican lean, though margins have tightened.

As of August 3, Alaska had 141,995 registered Republicans and 69,889 Democrats, but unaffiliated voters made up the largest bloc at 298,273, according to the Alaska Division of Elections. That independent streak could be decisive in November.

What Happens Next in the Alaska Senate Race

With the primary all but wrapped up, Sullivan and Peltola will spend the coming months campaigning on issues that matter to Alaskans, from resource development to fisheries. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as a pure toss-up.

For Iowa voters, the Alaska race is more than a distant political story. The outcome could tip the Senate, affecting everything from farm policy to energy independence. As the midterms approach, all eyes will be on this northern battleground.