Democrats' House takeover hopes hinge on suburban battlegrounds as Jeffries campaigns in key districts

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says his party is on the verge of reclaiming the House majority, and he is spending the final weeks before the midterms campaigning in competitive suburban districts that could decide control of Congress.

Jeffries visited two battleground districts in recent days, rallying with Democratic challengers in New Jersey and Pennsylvania who are trying to unseat Republican incumbents. The stops highlight how a handful of closely divided suburban seats could determine which party holds the gavel next year.

Jeffries rallies in New Jersey and Pennsylvania battlegrounds

On Friday, Jeffries campaigned in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District alongside Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett, a Navy veteran running against Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. The next day, he traveled to Pennsylvania's 1st District to support Democrat Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner challenging Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.

Both districts are heavily suburban, relatively affluent, and politically divided. They have also proven difficult for Democrats in recent cycles. Fitzpatrick has consistently outperformed other Republicans and drawn crossover support since his first election in 2016. Kean's seat has flipped twice since 2018, but he narrowly won reelection two years ago.

Democrats have poured resources into both races and view them as highly competitive, hoping to capitalize on an unfavorable political climate for President Donald Trump's party.

“We're running through the finish line. We take nothing for granted, but we're on the verge of taking back control of the House of Representatives,” Jeffries told reporters after Saturday's event in Pennsylvania.

Democrats target multiple GOP-held seats

In a briefing with political reporters Wednesday, Jeffries pointed to several districts in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York as pickup opportunities. He also said he plans to visit two South Texas districts in the coming weeks.

Republicans currently hold a single-digit majority in the House, meaning the midterm outcome could hinge on a relatively small number of races. Jeffries declined to predict exactly how many seats Democrats might gain.

“I'm very confident that we're going to take back the majority, but it remains to be seen what that looks like in terms of the number of seats that we pick up, which is going to depend on the conditions that exist over the next few weeks,” he said.

Fitzpatrick faces challenge in swing district

During the rally in Bucks County, a perennial swing county that backed Trump by a razor-thin margin in 2024, Harvie said Jeffries' presence signaled Democratic confidence in the race.

“It is not an accident that Hakeem Jeffries is here tonight. He knows what we're going to do with this district. He knows the potential,” Harvie said.

Fitzpatrick's campaign responded by noting the Republican lawmaker still considers Jeffries a friend and looks forward to working with him in a bipartisan manner in the 120th Congress.

Fitzpatrick, seeking a sixth term, has cultivated a moderate image and distanced himself from Trump on several high-profile votes. He voted with Democrats to rescind tariffs on Canada and restrict the Iran war, and he opposed final passage of the Trump administration's signature tax bill last year. He also recently pushed back on the president's plan to buy diesel from Russia.

Democrats argue Fitzpatrick has not consistently opposed Trump's agenda, pointing to his earlier vote in favor of the tax legislation. Fitzpatrick has said he voted against the final version after the Senate added steeper Medicaid cuts.

Judi Reiss, a Democratic local official in Lower Makefield Township, told CBS News she has no personal animosity toward Fitzpatrick but called him a rubber stamp for Trump.

“He has not been independent, and it's very disappointing,” said Reiss, who sought the 2020 Democratic nomination for Fitzpatrick's seat but dropped out before the primary.

Still, Fitzpatrick has a track record of surviving tough terrain. Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won his district in 2024, but Fitzpatrick won reelection that same year by more than 12 points. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the district from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” on Friday.

Bucks County resident Bill Craig, a Republican planning to vote for Fitzpatrick, said he believes Harvie has a slim chance but expects a close race due to heavy Democratic turnout.

“Brian Fitzpatrick could cure cancer right now, and they still wouldn't vote for them. He's very middle-of-the-road. They're trying to paint him as some kind of MAGA psycho,” Craig said.

Kean seeks third term in New Jersey

Jeffries campaigned for Bennett in New Jersey a day before his Pennsylvania stop. The Cook Political Report now views that race as Democratic-leaning, a shift after calling it a toss-up as recently as last month.

Kean is seeking a third term representing a district that stretches from the New York City suburbs to the Pennsylvania border, with Trump's Bedminster golf club in the middle. House Speaker Mike Johnson also campaigned with Kean in recent weeks.

Jeffries plans South Texas visits

Democrats are also defending two competitive South Texas districts while going on offense in two GOP-held seats in the region. Republicans made substantial gains among Latino voters in 2024, especially in South Texas, where some counties that were once Democratic strongholds shifted right.

Jeffries argued Latino voters could swing back to Democrats, citing concerns over the cost of living and the Trump administration's aggressive immigration policies. He said the political environment has changed dramatically in the Rio Grande Valley, where Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez are seeking reelection.

Jeffries also plans to campaign for Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who is running against Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in a toss-up district, and Democrat Johnny Garcia, who is challenging Republican nominee Carlos De La Cruz in a redder seat.

The Democratic leader rejected suggestions that newly drawn Republican congressional maps in Texas and Florida would deliver substantial GOP gains.

“Under no circumstances are Republicans winning five seats in Texas or four seats in Florida,” Jeffries told CBS News.

Johnson barnstorms GOP districts

On the Republican side, Johnson is also traveling to frontline districts as the GOP fights to maintain its majority. He said he expects to visit about 40 districts this month.

Johnson recently campaigned in Michigan and Pennsylvania with incumbent Republicans, and he also visited Iowa to support two GOP House candidates: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Joe Mitchell, who are aiming to retain Republican-held districts.

He also campaigned in Ohio with Derek Merrin, who is trying to unseat longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a toss-up district. It is a rematch of 2024, when Merrin lost by around 2,400 votes.

Johnson said he expects control of the House to be determined by at least 22 districts he described as “jump-balls.”

“This will come down to the outcome of about 22 districts around the country, and I believe we can win those,” Johnson told reporters.

Trump has also maintained an aggressive campaign schedule aimed at boosting Republican candidates. Jeffries said he welcomes Trump's increased involvement.

“The more Donald Trump campaigns for Republicans across the country, the better for the opportunity for Democrats to further convince the American people that we actually are the only ones determined to make life more affordable for them,” Jeffries said.

What's at stake for Iowa voters

While the most competitive House races are concentrated in suburban districts outside Iowa, the national outcome carries direct implications for the state. Control of the House will determine committee leadership, legislative priorities, and the fate of key policy areas important to Iowans, including agriculture policy, energy independence, and border security.

Republicans currently hold three of Iowa's four congressional seats, and the GOP's ability to defend its national majority will shape how much of the Trump agenda can advance in the next Congress.

Historical context: midterm expectations vs. reality

The party that does not control the White House typically performs well in midterms, but exact results are difficult to predict. In 2022, predictions of a sweeping Republican wave failed to materialize. Republicans narrowly won the House but did not recapture the Senate until two years later.

Jeffries acknowledged the outcome will depend on the political climate and spending. He noted that while the current environment appears favorable to Democrats, Republican-aligned groups' spending could limit Democratic gains. House Republicans' campaign committee had more cash on hand than its Democratic counterpart at the end of August.

Jeffries disputed suggestions that Republicans hold an overwhelming financial advantage, arguing Democrats are effectively at parity when spending by candidates, committees, and outside groups is considered together.

If Democrats regain control of the House, Jeffries would become the first Black speaker in American history.