Denny Hamlin's Best Shot at NASCAR Cup Championship: Why JGR Insider Says It's His to Lose

Denny Hamlin has never been in a better position to win his first NASCAR Cup Series championship. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver enters the Chase as the No. 1 seed after a dominant regular season, and veteran NASCAR insiders believe this could finally be his year.

Hamlin finished first in the regular season standings for the first time in his two-decade career. He is the only championship contender who did not record a DNF (did not finish) in the first 26 races. His four wins, 14 top-five finishes, and 17 top-10 results make him the clear favorite heading into the postseason.

Why Insiders See No Weaknesses in Hamlin's Championship Bid

Veteran NASCAR journalists Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck discussed Hamlin's chances on The Teardown podcast. Gluck suggested luck might be the one thing holding him back. Bianchi disagreed.

But that's not even, like, a weakness. That's not anything in their realm of control whatsoever. Like, yeah, Hamlin's luck sucks. And we get that,

Bianchi said on the podcast.

Luck has not always been on Hamlin's side. Last season, a questionable strategy call late in the Phoenix race cost him the championship and handed the title to Kyle Larson of Hendrick Motorsports. Despite that heartbreak, Hamlin bounced back to finish No. 1 in the regular season for the first time in his career.

Hard Work and Preparation Set Hamlin Apart

Bianchi highlighted Hamlin's work ethic as a key advantage over his competitors.

Denny's arguably the hardest-working driver in the sport. He studies the most. The team is on their game. The Toyota has the best cars this year. Joe Gibbs Racing is the best team. They check all the boxes,

Bianchi said.

Hamlin has shown he can overcome adversity during races. He came from behind to win at Michigan and Nashville earlier this year, proving his ability to adapt and execute under pressure.

He's got a 25-point cushion, and Denny Hamlin also has faster race cars to overcome. And if they have an issue, we've seen it this year. Nashville, Iowa. Other places where they've had moments, you know, like they're out to lunch and they figure it out,

Bianchi added.

Hamlin's Track Record at Every Chase Venue

The 2026 Chase schedule plays perfectly into Hamlin's strengths. There is not a single road course on the playoff calendar, which removes a potential weakness from his game.

Here is how Hamlin has performed at each Chase track:

• Darlington: Five career wins, including the season opener of the Chase this weekend
• World Wide Technology Raceway (Illinois): Won there last year
• Bristol: Two night race wins and two day race wins
• Kansas: More Cup Series wins than any other driver in the field
• Las Vegas: Three wins, including the 2025 race and his first victory of the 2026 season
• Charlotte Motor Speedway: Won there in overtime in 2022; the Roval has been replaced by the traditional oval this year
• Phoenix: Two wins, most recently in 2019
• Talladega: Two wins at the iconic superspeedway
• Martinsville: Six wins, the most recent in 2025
• Homestead: Three wins, the last coming in 2020 for his 40th Cup Series victory

Why 2026 Could Be Hamlin's Championship Year

Hamlin has been close before. He finished second in the championship last year, third twice in 2014 and 2021, and fourth in 2019 and 2020. He has 64 career Cup Series wins, putting him ninth on the all-time list.

Hamlin has already announced that 2027 will be his final full season. He wants to leave at the top, and winning the championship this year would be the perfect way to do it.

I feel clearly this is Denny Hamlin's year. I feel like this is his championship to lose,

Bianchi said.

The Chase begins this weekend at Darlington. Hamlin has won at every track on the playoff schedule, and he enters with a 25-point cushion over his rivals. With the best cars in the field and a team firing on all cylinders, Hamlin may never get a better shot at that elusive championship trophy.