ESPN Predictor Gives Ohio State Clear Path to 11-1, But Iowa Loss Looms Large for Hawkeyes

Ohio State's 31-14 win over Iowa at Kinnick Stadium last Saturday was a statement victory for the Buckeyes, and ESPN's computer model has taken notice. The updated Matchup Predictor now gives Ohio State an 11-1 projected regular season record, with the only remaining roadblocks coming against Indiana and USC on the road.

For Iowa fans, the loss was a tough pill to swallow, but the Hawkeyes showed fight in the first half before Ohio State pulled away late. The defeat drops Iowa to a projected finish that will depend heavily on the remainder of their Big Ten slate.

What the ESPN model says about Ohio State's remaining schedule

ESPN's analytics now favor the Buckeyes in every remaining game, with the tightest contest projected at Indiana on Oct. 17. The Hoosiers have a 46% chance to pull the upset at Memorial Stadium, according to the model, making that the most likely trap game on Ohio State's schedule.

The Buckeyes also face a tricky road trip to USC on Oct. 31, though ESPN gives Ohio State an 81.1% chance of winning, up from 77.9% at the start of the season.

How the Iowa game changed the projections

Ohio State's dominant second-half performance against Iowa boosted their win probabilities in several upcoming matchups. The model now gives the Buckeyes a 92.4% chance of beating Michigan at home on Nov. 28, up from 88.5% before the Iowa game.

The win over Iowa also solidified Ohio State's standing as the clear favorite in the Big Ten, with the model projecting wins over Oregon (80.2%) and Nebraska (76.8%) as well.

Game-by-game breakdown for the rest of the season

Oct. 10 vs. Maryland

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio. ESPN gives Ohio State a 98.4% chance of winning, up slightly from 98.0%. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series 9-0.

Oct. 17 at Indiana

Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana. The Buckeyes are favored at 54.0%, down slightly from 54.3%. Ohio State leads the series 80-13-5.

Oct. 31 at USC

Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California. Ohio State is favored at 81.1%, up from 77.9%. USC leads the all-time series 13-10-1.

Nov. 7 vs. Oregon

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio. The Buckeyes are favored at 80.2%, up from 77.8%. Ohio State leads the series 10-2.

Nov. 14 vs. Northwestern

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State is favored at 87.9%, down from 91.0%. The Buckeyes lead the series 66-14-1.

Nov. 21 at Nebraska

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska. Ohio State is favored at 76.8%, up from 75.9%. The Buckeyes lead the series 10-1.

Nov. 28 vs. Michigan

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State is favored at 92.4%, up from 88.5%. Michigan leads the all-time series 62-52-6.

What this means for Iowa

While the ESPN model is bullish on Ohio State, Iowa's path to a strong finish remains uncertain. The Hawkeyes have shown resilience under head coach Kirk Ferentz, but the loss to Ohio State exposed some vulnerabilities in the secondary that opponents may exploit in the coming weeks.

Iowa fans will be watching closely as the team prepares for its next matchup, hoping the Hawkeyes can bounce back and build momentum for a strong finish to the season.

This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire and was adapted for Just The News Iowa.