FCS Upsets Over Power Four Teams Nearly Extinct as NIL, Portal Widen Gap
Iowa fans remember the last time an FCS team shocked a Power Four opponent. It was 2023, when Sacramento State stunned Stanford. Since then, Power Four teams have won 125 straight games against FCS competition. The upset may be extinct.
Two full seasons have passed without another FCS victory over a Power Four opponent. The gap between college football's top tier and the FCS keeps widening, and the transfer portal and NIL are the biggest reasons why. FCS programs can no longer hold onto their best players, who increasingly leave for the FBS level.
Why FCS Upsets Have Dried Up
Since the first full year of the NIL era in 2022, FBS power conference teams are 223-2 against FCS opponents, a winning percentage of .991. Compare that to the 16 seasons prior, when power conference teams were 747-38 against FCS opponents, a .952 winning percentage. The shift is stark.
The talent drain is only getting worse. North Dakota State, the most successful FCS program of the era with a 6-4 record against power-conference opponents since 2006, is moving to the FBS this season. Sacramento State is also making the jump.
Six Games That Could Break the Streak
More than 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups are on the 2026 schedule. Fifty-seven pit an FCS program against a Power Four opponent, and 11 feature a preseason top-25 FCS team. If the streak ends, it will likely come from one of these six games.
South Dakota State at Northwestern
South Dakota State, just two years removed from back-to-back FCS national championships, returns quarterback Chase Mason. The Jackrabbits are 0-4 against Power Four opponents since their 2015 win at Kansas, but two of those losses came by a combined 11 points. Northwestern has been on the wrong end of three FCS upsets since 2006.
Youngstown State at Kentucky
The Penguins bring back reigning Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, who threw for 3,234 yards and 26 touchdowns last season while adding 1,468 rushing yards and 27 more scores on the ground. Kentucky has a top-10 transfer portal class, but first-year coach Will Stein faces a real test.
North Dakota at Nebraska
Huskers fans remember 2022, when North Dakota had Nebraska in a battle for three quarters before the Big Red escaped 38-17. Eight days later, Scott Frost was fired. North Dakota returns dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker, an Omaha native. The Fighting Hawks nearly upset Kansas State last season.
Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State
Mississippi State could be riding a lengthy losing streak by the time Tennessee Tech arrives in Starkville in November. The Golden Eagles went 11-2 in 2025 and have reloaded with another strong transfer class. That could be a dangerous spot for a team getting beaten up in the SEC.
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is just four years removed from an embarrassing 23-3 loss to East Tennessee State. Quarterback Diego Pavia is gone, and the Commodores are expected to take a step back. Austin Peay quarterback Chris Parson was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award last season.
Monmouth at West Virginia
West Virginia is 24-0 against FCS competition, but coach Rich Rodriguez has flipped the roster twice since arriving, adding more than 70 new players for 2026. That kind of turnover creates uncertainty about how quickly the new pieces will mesh.
What This Means for Iowa Fans
Iowa fans know the FCS threat firsthand. South Dakota State nearly beat the Hawkeyes in 2022, losing by just seven points. With the gap widening, those close calls may become even rarer. But as these six matchups show, the upset is not impossible. It just takes a perfect alignment of talent, timing, and luck.