Florida primary shakes up midterms: Donalds wins GOP nod, progressive upsets Vindman

Tuesday's primary elections delivered a mixed bag for incumbents and reshaped the political landscape heading into November's midterms, with Florida at the center of several key races. Republican Byron Donalds secured the GOP nomination for governor, while a progressive underdog scored a stunning upset in a Democratic Senate primary. The results will help determine control of Congress, where Republicans currently hold a narrow edge.

Who won the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?

Byron Donalds, a rising star in the Republican Party, won his party's nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Donalds joins a historic slate of Black gubernatorial nominees across the country as he vies to become the first Black governor of Florida. He will face David Jolly, a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat who won the Democratic nomination Tuesday night.

Donalds' victory adds to a notable trend this cycle: Republicans John James in Michigan and Lisa Demuth in Minnesota also won their gubernatorial primaries, while Democrats David Crowley in Wisconsin, Aaron Ford in Nevada, Jermaine Johnson in South Carolina, and Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia secured their spots. Either Bottoms or Demuth could become the country's first Black woman governor. Currently, Democrat Wes Moore of Maryland is the nation's only Black governor and is seeking reelection in November.

How did a progressive upset a heavily funded establishment rival?

In a major upset, progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon easily defeated retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council official who delivered searing testimony against Trump during his 2019 impeachment trial. Vindman had outraised Nixon by more than 16-to-1, with Nixon bringing in less than $1 million. Nixon will now face Sen. Ashley Moody, who was appointed by DeSantis after Secretary of State Marco Rubio stepped down, in a campaign to fill the last two years of Rubio's former Senate term.

The outcome signals that the battle between outsider and establishment candidates continues to roil the Democratic Party, moving from states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan into more conservative territory. In another South Florida matchup, U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz won the nomination for reelection in a new Republican-friendly district against union organizer and democratic socialist Oliver Larkin.

What happened in Florida's redrawn congressional districts?

Republican-led redistricting scrambled Florida's congressional map, creating awkward matchups for Democrats. Longtime U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz easily won the most contentious race, beating U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and three other Black candidates in a South Florida district that is plurality-Black. Cherfilus-McCormick had resigned earlier this year under a pending federal indictment and threat of House ethics sanctions but wanted her seat back.

Wasserman Schultz, a former national party chair seeking a 12th term, was the only white candidate competing to represent an area of Broward County that has helped send Black Democrats to Congress since 1992. Her decision to run stirred deep animosity, including charges by one rival that she stabbed them in the back.

Trump's mixed record in primaries

While Trump-backed Donalds emerged victorious, the candidate Trump endorsed to fill his own congressional seat, Catalina Lauf, lost to Jim Schwartzel, owner of conservative talk radio station 92.5 FOX News. The race featured a cast of characters akin to a reality show reunion, including several who had spent time in prison and a handful who had run in other states.

Among them were two former members of Congress mounting comeback bids after departing in scandal: former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn, whose tenure was marred by repeat traffic stops, guns at airport checkpoints, and a claim he had been invited to a Washington orgy, and former New York Rep. Chris Collins, who resigned before pleading guilty to insider trading charges and served prison time before being pardoned by Trump. Also in the race was John Strand, a former television actor, underwear model, and romance novel cover model who served prison time for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol.

Trump's picks for governor have occasionally struggled in primaries this year. In Wyoming, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, endorsed by Trump, lost to state Sen. Eric Barlow, a U.S. Marine veteran and livestock veterinarian who is also a former Wyoming House Speaker. Trump also saw losses with Mike Lindell in Minnesota, Randy Feenstra in Iowa, Burt Jones in Georgia, and Pamela Evette in South Carolina.

However, Trump had better luck in Wyoming's Senate race, where his endorsed candidate, Rep. Harriet Hageman, easily captured the Republican nomination for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis.

Did Republicans lose an incumbent in Florida?

Yes, Republican Rep. Cory Mills lost his bid for a third term to Ryan Elijah, a former television reporter. Mills faced a series of scandals, including allegations of domestic violence involving a former girlfriend, which he denies. He had also been abandoned by DeSantis and other state officials. Trump initially backed Mills in February but did not include him in a list of endorsements on Monday.

What about the Alaska Senate race and California's 14th District?

In Alaska, the primary ballot for the state's Senate race included both Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Trump ally seeking a third term, and another candidate also named Dan Sullivan. Republicans claimed the second Sullivan, who appeared on the ballot as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., was a sham candidate running at the behest of Democrats to cause confusion. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher, denied the charge. Under the state's open primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, and the four who receive the most votes move on to a ranked-vote general election. Sullivan and former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, who would become the first Alaska Native senator if she wins in November, swiftly advanced, but it was too early to call the other two spots.

In California's Bay Area, voters are choosing a replacement for Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, whose resignation amid sexual assault allegations ended his run for governor. State Sen. Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez advanced from a special open primary, though the race was too early to call. The campaign reprised a theme that dominated other Democratic primaries this year: outside spending, particularly from pro-Israel lobbying groups. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee's super PAC spent more than $2 million against Wahab and in support of Hernandez, with another group funded by the super PAC spending nearly $2 million more. Similar spending seemed to backfire in Michigan's recent Democratic Senate primary, where Abdul El-Sayed emerged victorious despite tens of millions of dollars backing his opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens.

As the dust settles on Tuesday's contests, the focus now shifts to November, when voters across the country will decide control of Congress and several closely watched governorships.