GOP Leads Key Senate Races, Ashley Hinson Up in Iowa

Republicans are positioned to maintain control of the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm elections, according to the latest New York Times/Siena polling. In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson holds a narrow lead over State Representative Josh Turek for the open Senate seat currently held by retiring Senator Joni Ernst. Nationally, the GOP's strong standing in key battleground states makes it highly unlikely that Democrats will pick up the four seats necessary to claim a majority.

Who is leading the Iowa Senate race to replace Joni Ernst?

The race to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst is one of the most closely watched contests of the cycle. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson currently leads Democratic State Representative Josh Turek by two points, 48 to 46 percent, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll. While overall polling indicates a tight race, Iowa's consistent shift toward red-state status gives Hinson a structural advantage. Keeping this seat in Republican hands is critical for the GOP to maintain its Senate majority and continue advancing policies that prioritize agriculture, energy independence, and limited government.

Can Democrats flip the Senate in the 2026 midterms?

Currently, Democrats hold 47 Senate seats compared to the Republican majority of 53. To take control of the upper chamber, Democrats must defend all their current seats and flip four Republican seats. The latest polling data suggests this is a steep hill to climb. While Democrats have targeted states like Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, and Alaska, the New York Times/Siena polls show Republican candidates leading or highly competitive in most of these crucial races. For voters focused on blocking the progressive agenda, the current numbers provide a strong sense of optimism heading into November.

How are Republican Senate candidates performing in key swing states?

In Ohio, appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted leads former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown 50 to 47 percent. Husted, who was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance, is running in a special election to complete the term. Ohio's increasing alignment with conservative candidates bolsters Husted's position against Brown, a three-term former senator who lost his seat in 2024.

In Texas, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has regained his footing against Democratic State Representative James Talarico. Talarico, known for his far-left rhetoric, has lost the single lead he once held in early polling as his controversial statements gained national attention.

In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins has surged against a scandal-plagued Democratic challenger, Graham Platner. A recent Fox News poll shows Collins up by three points. Platner, who once held a near double-digit lead, has seen his campaign falter amid revelations regarding an extramarital account on a messaging app and other controversial personal conduct.

In Alaska, incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan leads Democratic Representative Mary Peltola 47 to 45 percent. The race remains tight, and Republicans have raised concerns about Democratic tactics, specifically the placement of another candidate named