Iowa Farmers Feel Tariff Squeeze But Stay Loyal to Trump as Democrats Eye Senate Seats

Iowa farmers are facing some of the toughest economic conditions in years, with low commodity prices and soaring input costs putting real pressure on family operations. But as Democrats look to flip Senate seats in the heartland, new reporting suggests most farmers aren't ready to abandon President Donald Trump or the Republican Party.

The Cook Political Report has moved Iowa's Senate race into the tossup category, and prediction markets put Republican odds at just 60 to 70 percent in both Iowa and Nebraska. Democrats are even eyeing Kansas, though that remains a longer shot. The strategy hinges on the belief that economic frustration among farmers, a traditionally reliable GOP constituency, could crack open races that once seemed safely red.

Why are Iowa farmers struggling right now?

Iowa ranks among the top five soybean-producing states in the country, and historically sells over half its crop to China. But China responded to Trump's tariffs with a 13 percent import duty on soybeans, and Brazil has since overtaken the U.S. as China's top supplier.

Fertilizer costs have also climbed sharply. The global fertilizer index shows wholesale prices up 84.1 percent over the last two years, with conditions worsening since the start of the war in Iran. The American Farm Bureau reports that Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies rose 46 percent in 2025, and costs for seeds, equipment, and fuel continue to climb.

A May 2026 Fox poll showed Trump's support across rural America slipping into negative territory, driven largely by these farm struggles.

What Iowa farmers say about Trump and the tariffs

Despite the strain, many farmers remain firmly in Trump's corner. NBC interviewed 13 Iowa farmers and found that while most acknowledged the economic pain, the majority said they don't regret supporting Trump.

It's going to get ugly for a while, but in the long run, it's going to help us. Trump is the first president we've had in a long time that will stand up to China, because China just runs all over us.

A farmer from southern Illinois echoed that sentiment, noting that low grain prices and high diesel costs existed under both the Biden and Trump administrations. The difference now, he said, is higher fertilizer costs, though he credited the Big Beautiful Bill's Farmer Bridge Assistance Program with providing some relief.

Another Nebraska farmer told The Daily Wire: As farmers because of tariffs we are hurting, however, for the long term if something doesn't happen the country is going to fall. He's trying to make changes for the better.

What is the Trump administration doing for farmers?

The White House argues that Trump's policies are directly addressing the challenges farmers face. Spokesperson Anna Kelly said the president is negotiating new trade deals, lowering input costs, bolstering the farm safety net, doubling the death tax exemption, ending taxes on rural property loan interest, and creating rural opportunity zones.

The administration also launched OnlyFarms, a federal platform with an interactive map that lets farmers and ranchers calculate projected savings from Trump's agricultural agenda. In March, Trump invited hundreds of farmers and ranchers to the White House, speaking from a balcony overlooking a gold-painted tractor and assuring them they once again have a true friend and champion in the Oval Office.

Still, tensions persist. Just last week, Trump announced a massive increase in beef imports to help bring prices down, a move that has upset some in the agricultural sector.

Can Democrats really compete in Iowa?

Democrats are trying. Chuck Schumer has backed moderate-presenting nominees in Iowa and Kansas, and in Nebraska the party is supporting an independent candidate to avoid the Democratic brand. But expanding the map requires money, and the DNC is broke while the RNC is flush with cash.

The bigger hurdle may be cultural. Farmers across the Midwest are experiencing real economic strain, but frustration hasn't translated into a mass shift toward Democrats. As one farmer put it, the pain is real, but so is the belief that Trump is fighting for the long-term future of the country.

For Iowa voters watching the Senate race, the question isn't just about policy. It's about trust, loyalty, and whether the party that has stood by rural America will continue to earn that support. So far, the evidence suggests most Iowa farmers are staying put.