Iowa Football Bowl Projection: Hawkeyes Could Face Florida in Tampa
Iowa football fans may want to circle late December on their calendars. A new preseason projection has the Hawkeyes heading to Tampa to face Florida in the Reliaquest Bowl, a matchup that would pit two traditional powers against each other in a game with significant implications for both programs.
The prediction comes from Kevin Brockway, Florida beat writer for The Gainesville Sun, who projects the Gators to finish 8-4 in coach Jon Sumrall's first season. That record would send Florida to Tampa, where Iowa is projected as the Big Ten opponent in the Reliaquest Bowl, traditionally held on New Year's Eve or nearby dates.
For Iowa fans, a trip to Tampa would mark a return to a bowl destination the program knows well. The Hawkeyes have played in the Reliaquest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) multiple times, most recently in 2022 when they defeated Kentucky 21-17. A matchup against an SEC opponent would also give Iowa a chance to measure itself against one of the nation's toughest conferences.
What would a Florida-Iowa matchup look like?
Florida enters the 2026 season with a new head coach in Jon Sumrall, who has promised an aggressive, physical approach. The Gators face the seventh-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN's power index, including five teams ranked in the preseason US LBM Top 25 coaches' poll.
Sumrall has made clear he welcomes the challenge.
We're gonna play anybody, anywhere, anytime, Sumrall said. Whoever they put on our schedule, we're gonna play. I'm not gonna whine and complain about being an SEC head football coach.
Florida's offense will feature quarterback Aaron Philo, who is expected to split time with Tramell Jones early in the season before taking the reins. Running back Jadan Baugh is projected to have a breakout year, with Brockway predicting he will challenge for the SEC rushing title.
Iowa, meanwhile, will be coming off a season in which it aims to build on its identity of strong defense, disciplined special teams, and a power running game. The Hawkeyes have not faced Florida since the 2004 Outback Bowl, a 37-17 Iowa victory that remains a highlight in program history.
Florida's path to Tampa
Brockway's game-by-game predictions show a Florida team that starts strong, stumbles in the middle of SEC play, and finishes with momentum. Key results include:
- Florida 49, Florida Atlantic 21 in the opener, with Philo and Jones combining for five touchdown passes.
- Florida 21, Auburn 16, a comeback win at Auburn, Florida's first there since 1999.
- Ole Miss 28, Florida 24, a home loss that spoils the SEC opener.
- Texas 28, Florida 13, where former Florida coach Will Muschamp, now Texas' defensive coordinator, schemes against his old team.
- Georgia 24, Florida 17, another competitive loss to the rival Bulldogs.
- Florida 28, Oklahoma 17, an upset win at The Swamp in Oklahoma's first visit.
- Kentucky 31, Florida 24, a loss in Lexington that snaps a three-game winning streak in the series.
- Florida 34, Florida State 13, a rivalry win to close the regular season.
Brockway projects Florida to finish 5-4 in SEC play, which would be the program's first winning conference record since 2020.
Why Iowa could be a tough matchup for Florida
Iowa's defensive identity would pose a challenge to Florida's new-look offense. The Hawkeyes have consistently ranked among the nation's best in scoring defense, and their ability to force turnovers could neutralize Florida's passing attack.
On the other side, Iowa's ground game, led by a physical offensive line, would test a Florida defense that Brockway predicts will have communication breakdowns in the secondary early in the season.
A bowl matchup would also give Iowa fans a chance to see their team against a high-profile SEC opponent, a game that could boost the program's national standing heading into the following season.
What this means for Iowa's bowl picture
The Reliaquest Bowl is one of the top non-playoff bowl games, typically featuring a Big Ten team against an SEC team. For Iowa, a trip to Tampa would be a reward for a solid season and a chance to close the year with a marquee win.
Bowl projections are always speculative, but the prospect of Iowa facing Florida in Tampa is an intriguing one. Both programs are in transition, both have passionate fan bases, and both would bring significant energy to Raymond James Stadium.
For now, Iowa fans can only wait and see how the season unfolds. But if the projection holds, December in Tampa could be a memorable trip for Hawkeye Nation.
Kevin Brockway is The Gainesville Sun's Florida beat writer. This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun.