Iowa Hawkeyes Face 14-Point Underdog Role vs. Ohio State in Big Ten Showdown

The undefeated Iowa Hawkeyes are getting little respect from oddsmakers heading into Saturday's marquee Big Ten clash with No. 5 Ohio State. Despite playing at home in Kinnick Stadium, Iowa is a 14-point underdog, according to the latest college football odds. It's a tough spot for the 14th-ranked Hawkeyes, but one that has Iowa fans and bettors alike buzzing about the potential for an upset.

The game is one of three ranked matchups in Week 5, with the others taking place in the SEC. No. 7 Alabama is favored by 6 points over No. 16 Mississippi State, while No. 8 Florida is a 4-point road favorite at 25th-ranked Missouri. For Iowa, the question is whether the home crowd and a stingy defense can keep things close against a high-powered Ohio State offense.

SportsLine's advanced computer model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has crunched the numbers and released its picks for Iowa vs. Ohio State and every other Week 5 matchup. The model is on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 bettors. Here's what it says about the Hawkeyes' chances.

Can Iowa cover the spread against Ohio State?

The Hawkeyes have been a tough out at home, but Ohio State presents a different level of talent. The Buckeyes are 5-0 and averaging over 40 points per game, while Iowa's defense has been solid but untested against elite competition. The model's simulations show Ohio State winning outright in the majority of scenarios, but Iowa covering the 14-point spread is a real possibility.

One key factor: Iowa's ability to control the clock with a physical running game and limit Ohio State's possessions. The Hawkeyes rank in the top 20 nationally in time of possession, and if they can keep the Buckeyes' offense off the field, they could keep this game closer than the odds suggest. The model projects a final score in the range of 31-20, which would leave Iowa covering the spread.

However, the model also notes that Ohio State's explosive passing attack, led by quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, could break the game open in a hurry. Iowa's secondary has been vulnerable to big plays, and that's a concern against a Buckeyes unit that averages over 9 yards per attempt.

What are the best bets for Week 5 college football?

Beyond the Iowa game, the SportsLine model has identified several other strong plays for Week 5. One of its top recommendations is Navy (+2.5) covering against Air Force in the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy opener. The Midshipmen have been sharp as underdogs, and Air Force has lost six straight against the spread at home versus FBS teams.

Another pick: Missouri (+4.5) covering at home against Florida. The Tigers are 23-3 in their last 26 home games, and Florida has been sloppy, ranking fourth in the FBS in penalty yards. The model also likes the under in that game, projecting a low-scoring affair.

For Iowa fans looking for a little action, the model suggests considering the under on the total (45.5). Iowa's games have averaged just 38 points this season, and Ohio State's defense is underrated, ranking in the top 10 nationally in yards allowed per play.

Full Week 5 college football odds and spreads

Here's a look at the notable lines for Week 5, with odds subject to change:

• Thursday, Oct. 1: Western Kentucky at New Mexico State (-1.5, 53.5); North Texas at Tulsa (-2.5, 57.5)
• Friday, Oct. 2: Liberty at Delaware (+7, 49.5); Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (-3.5, 52.5); Penn State at Northwestern (+2.5, 45.5)
• Saturday, Oct. 3: Alabama at Mississippi State (+6, 59.5); Navy at Air Force (-2.5, 47.5); Notre Dame at North Carolina (+21.5, 47.5); Auburn at Tennessee (-7.5, 54.5); Florida at Missouri (+4.5, 56.5); Ohio State at Iowa (+13.5, 45.5); Miami at Clemson (+17.5, 49.5); Texas Tech at Colorado (+13.5, 50.5); Washington at USC (-9.5, 56.5)

For Iowa, the spread has moved slightly from 14 to 13.5, indicating some money coming in on the Hawkeyes. That's a good sign for Iowa backers, as sharp bettors often move lines in the direction of the value side.

How to make smart college football picks this week

The key to successful betting is finding value, and the model's data-driven approach is a proven way to do that. It simulates every game 10,000 times, accounting for injuries, weather, and situational factors, to identify where the odds are off. For Week 5, it has locked in picks for every FBS matchup, including a few underdogs that could win outright.

One such underdog is Auburn, a 7.5-point underdog at Tennessee. The model sees the Tigers pulling off a straight-up upset, citing Tennessee's struggles against mobile quarterbacks and Auburn's improved offensive line play. Another is Colorado, a 13.5-point underdog at home against Texas Tech, where the Buffaloes' high-octane passing attack could keep it close.

For Iowa, the model's advice is simple: don't be afraid to back the Hawkeyes against the spread. While Ohio State is the better team on paper, Iowa's home-field advantage and defensive tenacity make the 13.5-point spread a tempting proposition. The model projects Iowa covers in over 40% of simulations, which is solid value for a 13.5-point underdog.

What does this mean for Iowa football fans?

For Iowa fans, Saturday's game is a chance to prove the doubters wrong. A win or even a close loss would send a message that the Hawkeyes belong in the national conversation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz has built a program on toughness and discipline, and that could be the difference in a game where Ohio State is favored by nearly two touchdowns.

Regardless of the outcome, this is a prime-time opportunity for Iowa to showcase its brand of football on a national stage. And for bettors, the model's data suggests there's value in backing the Hawkeyes, whether against the spread or on the moneyline at +550.

So, as you gear up for a weekend of college football, keep an eye on Iowa City. The Hawkeyes may be underdogs, but they're not out of the fight. And with the SportsLine model's picks in hand, you can make informed decisions on every game, including the big one in Kinnick Stadium.