Iowa Hawkeyes Overrated in Preseason AP Top 25? Local Expert Says Yes

The preseason AP Top 25 poll dropped Monday, and while Iowa fans are excited to see the Hawkeyes ranked No. 22, one national analyst believes the voters got it wrong. In fact, Iowa is one of four teams that may be overrated heading into the 2026 college football season.

For a program that prides itself on defense and a punishing ground game, the Hawkeyes' inclusion in the preseason rankings raises a familiar question: Can Iowa actually throw the football?

Why Iowa's No. 22 ranking raises eyebrows

The Hawkeyes went 8-4 in 2025 and return a stout defense and reliable rushing attack. But the passing game remains a major concern. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is once again in the middle of a quarterback battle between two inexperienced signal-callers.

Mark Gronowski, a transfer, was serviceable but hardly spectacular. The reality is Iowa has not consistently developed quarterbacks at a high rate, and until that changes, ranking the Hawkeyes feels premature.

It's certainly possible the Hawkeyes develop a passing attack this season, but when has Iowa actually done that? We need to see it to believe it.

Texas A&M faces brutal schedule after losing 14 starters

Texas A&M checks in at No. 8 after making the College Football Playoff last year. Coach Mike Elko returns star quarterback Marcel Reed and a defense that should be stout. But the Aggies lost 14 starters to graduation and the NFL draft, and the schedule is unforgiving.

With only two home games against top-25 opponents and road trips to four ranked teams, Texas A&M could stumble early. The talent is there, but the roster turnover and travel demands make No. 8 feel too generous.

Alabama's slide continues under Kalen DeBoer

Alabama at No. 13 might be a name-brand ranking. The Crimson Tide have lost four games in each of DeBoer's two seasons, and the quarterback situation is unsettled. Ty Simpson is gone, and it looks like former five-star Keelon Russell will take the reins.

Russell has potential, but Alabama is no longer the juggernaut it was under Nick Saban. A top-15 ranking with so many unanswered questions feels like the voters are still living in the past.

Penn State's schedule is favorable, but skepticism remains

Penn State drew a favorable schedule this season, avoiding Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. The Nittany Lions' toughest tests are USC and Michigan, and 10 wins are possible. But last year's team was supposed to be top-five material with James Franklin, Drew Allar, and a loaded roster. They won just seven games.

New coach Matt Campbell is a solid hire, but cautious optimism is the right approach. No. 18 might be a bit high for a program still trying to prove it can meet expectations.

What this means for Iowa's season

For Iowa fans, the message is simple: The Hawkeyes will win games with defense and the run game, but the passing attack remains the elephant in the room. If Ferentz can finally develop a reliable quarterback, Iowa could exceed expectations. If not, the No. 22 ranking may look generous by October.

Frequently asked questions about the preseason AP Top 25

Is Iowa really overrated at No. 22?

Many analysts think so. Iowa's defense and rushing attack are solid, but the passing game has been a weakness for years. Without a proven quarterback, ranking the Hawkeyes in the preseason poll is a gamble.

Which team is the most overrated in the AP Top 25?

Texas A&M at No. 8 is the most questionable pick. Losing 14 starters and facing a brutal schedule makes that ranking hard to justify.

Can Alabama bounce back under Kalen DeBoer?

Alabama has lost four games in each of DeBoer's first two seasons. With a new quarterback and lingering questions, the Tide may struggle to stay in the top 15.

Will Penn State finally meet expectations?

Penn State has a favorable schedule, but last year's disappointing 7-win season under James Franklin still lingers. New coach Matt Campbell could help, but skepticism is warranted.

John Damon is a contributor to Just The News Iowa, covering college football and local sports from a conservative perspective.