Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State: Week 5 odds, picks, and what to watch at Kinnick
The 14th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes are back in Iowa City for a massive Big Ten showdown Saturday, hosting No. 4 Ohio State at Kinnick Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the Hawkeyes are looking to build on a thrilling last-second win at Michigan that pushed them to 4-0 on the season.
The Buckeyes (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) opened the year as the nation's top team but fell to Texas in Week 2. They have since rebounded with two straight wins, including a dominant 42-19 victory over Illinois. Ohio State has won seven of the past eight meetings in this series, including a 35-7 blowout in Columbus in October 2024.
Here's everything Iowa fans need to know about the matchup, including the latest odds, key storylines, and a prediction for Saturday's clash.
Ohio State vs. Iowa betting odds
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Buckeyes are 14-point road favorites with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, gives Iowa a 51% chance of covering the spread despite being heavy underdogs.
Iowa's defense faces its toughest test yet
Iowa leads the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing just eight points per game. The Hawkeyes rank 10th nationally in total yards allowed at 239.8 per game. Defensive end Joseph Anderson leads the pass rush with two sacks, and the defense has forced six turnovers through four games.
The unit will need to be at its best against an Ohio State offense that leads the conference in total yards per game, averaging 522. The Buckeyes boast the current Heisman Trophy favorite in receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has at least 150 receiving yards in three of four games this season, including 217 last week against Illinois.
Quarterback Julian Sayin threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns in that win, all four scores going to Smith. The Buckeyes also rushed for 151 yards as a team, giving Iowa's defense multiple threats to contain.
Hank Brown and the Hawkeyes offense building momentum
Quarterback Hank Brown shook off a slow start at Michigan to lead Iowa to its first road victory as a starter. He completed 13 of his final 19 passes and is completing 68% of his throws on the season with 700 yards and five touchdowns.
The Hawkeyes have a deep backfield with four running backs averaging at least 125 rushing yards. Kamari Moulton leads the group with 293 yards and averages 7.3 yards per carry, while Xavier Williams has three touchdowns on just 16 carries.
Braeden Jackson's 99-yard kickoff return in Ann Arbor was a game-changer, and special teams could again play a role in a game where points may be hard to come by.
Betting trends favor the underdog
Iowa has been one of the most reliable teams against the spread in the country, posting a 12-4-1 record since the start of last season. The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 against the spread versus ranked opponents and 2-0 as home underdogs.
Ohio State has gone 13-4-1 against the spread since 2025, including 5-1 as a road team. However, all six of the Buckeyes' road games and all six matchups against ranked opponents have gone Under the total during that stretch. Iowa has also trended toward the Under, with six of their last 10 home games finishing below the projected total.
Prediction: Iowa covers the spread at home
Both defenses are legitimate, and this shapes up as a physical, low-scoring Big Ten battle. While Ohio State has more talent on offense, Iowa's defense has proven capable of disrupting even the best attacks, especially in front of a home crowd at Kinnick.
The SportsLine model gives Iowa a 25% chance of winning outright, but a 51% chance of covering the 14-point spread. Given Iowa's strong home record against the spread and the Buckeyes' tendency to play close games against ranked opponents, taking Iowa plus the points is the smart play.
Expect a hard-fought game that comes down to the fourth quarter, with Iowa keeping it within two touchdowns and giving the home crowd plenty to cheer about.