Iowa Polling Warning: Conservative Radio Host Says Trump Risks Midterms Over Iran Policy

Conservative radio host Steve Deace is sounding the alarm about what Republican pollsters are telling Iowa House lawmakers, warning that President Donald Trump's handling of Iran could cost the GOP control of Congress in November.

In a lengthy post on X, Deace said Iowa House Republicans were briefed Tuesday by their own pollsters with sobering numbers: candidates in +15 districts are within the margin of error, those in +10 districts are underwater, and the overall environment could be worse than the 2006 midterm wipeout.

Deace, who hosts a podcast on The Blaze, said he hesitated before going public with the data.

I slept on whether to share this publicly, because I don't want to cause anyone to black pill. But this morning I ultimately decided the truth should be shared while there is still six weeks left to do something about it for the good of the country.

What are the latest poll numbers for Republicans in Iowa?

The warning comes as national polling shows Republicans facing headwinds. CNN reported this week that Trump is now 71 points underwater with Independent voters, an 86-point swing from 2024 when he won that group by 15 points.

Deace argued that if the political climate is this tough in Iowa, a state where Trump has been the dominant political figure for a decade, the situation is likely worse elsewhere.

Because if the environment is this bad in my home state, where Trump has been the most popular political figure over the last decade, I can't imagine where it is everywhere else.

Why is the Iran situation becoming a political liability?

Deace described the administration's approach to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz as an albatross comparable to the COVID lockdowns of 2020 in terms of political damage.

Whatever we're doing or not doing in Iran/Hormuz has become a 2020 Covid lockdown level of political albatross. This is approaching TARP bailout levels of unpopular in my home state.

He warned that a Democratic takeover of Congress would effectively end the Trump domestic agenda, pointing to court rulings and the prospect of Democratic majorities as a one-two punch.

We are risking what's left of the Trump presidency on this, because if Democrats take control the legislative branch the Trump domestic agenda we all voted for will largely cease between what a Democrat Congress will do and the courts have already been doing.

What does Deace say Republicans should do now?

Deace urged Trump to get back on the campaign trail immediately and sharpen the party's message. He criticized current GOP advertising as weak and called for a more aggressive approach.

We need the president out on the stump asap. We need better and way more aggressive messaging. Stop running fake and gay ads about how often so-and-so shows up for votes, and instead mercilessly hammer Democrats on the wickedness they're voting for.

He also called on the administration to clearly define what victory looks like in the Iran conflict.

Articulate specifically what the mission/victory is in Iran/Hormuz, because out here in the cheap seats it feels like another Middle East War quagmire regular folks are paying for on both ends all over again.

What is at stake for Iowa Republicans?

Deace emphasized the stakes for Iowa specifically, noting the state's shift to deep red over the past two decades. He argued that a Democratic Congress would have direct consequences for Iowa families and the conservative policy wins achieved in recent years.

Not to mention what it will cost individual states like my own, which we have worked so hard to make so red these last 20 years (with Trump's help).

He closed with a call to action, insisting the election is not lost yet.

I desperately want us to win. I desperately want this presidency to fulfill all the great promise it had coming out of the 2024 election. But whatever this currently is, isn't it. We don't have to just sit here and take the L. It doesn't have to end this way. We can still win. There's plenty of ammunition to hammer the Democrats with.

Deace also made a pointed request regarding Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, saying, make sure Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas are getting the finest healthcare in America, a reference to concerns about the ages and health of the conservative justices.

What happens next?

With six weeks until Election Day, Deace's warning adds to a growing chorus of conservative voices urging a course correction. Whether the White House heeds that advice remains to be seen, but Iowa Republicans are clearly on notice.