Iowa State vs. BYU: Cyclones face tough test in Provo, betting odds and picks for Friday night

Iowa State heads to Provo on Friday night as a 10.5-point underdog against a BYU team that is unbeaten and hungry for a College Football Playoff spot. The Cyclones, under new head coach Jimmy Rogers, are 3-2 and looking to bounce back from a loss to Utah. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

BYU enters the game at 4-0 and is coming off a 12-win season that ended just short of the playoff. The Cougars are favored by double digits, but Iowa State has shown fight in both of its losses this year. The key for the Cyclones will be establishing the run and controlling the clock against a high-powered BYU offense.

What's at stake for Iowa State and BYU?

For BYU, this game is about staying perfect and building a playoff resume. The Cougars missed the College Football Playoff last year despite a 12-2 record, and they are determined to avoid that fate again. They have a tough stretch ahead, including a home game against Notre Dame next week and a trip to Utah on Nov. 7, so a win over Iowa State is nearly a must.

Iowa State is in a transition year under Rogers, who took over for Matt Campbell after Campbell left for Penn State. The Cyclones have already shown they can compete, losing to Iowa by just three points and falling to Utah by two touchdowns. A win on the road against a top-tier Big 12 team would be a statement for the new coaching staff and the program's direction.

Key matchup: Iowa State's run game vs. BYU's defense

The Cyclones' best chance to pull off the upset is on the ground. Running back Aiden Flora has been a bright spot, rushing for 594 yards and averaging 8.1 yards per carry. If Iowa State can feed Flora early and keep BYU's offense off the field, they can control the tempo and keep the game close.

BYU's defense has been solid, but the Cougars have not faced a running back with Flora's efficiency this season. The Cyclones will need to be patient and commit to the run, even if they fall behind early. Short possessions for BYU could put the Cougars in an uncomfortable position, especially if the game stays within reach in the fourth quarter.

Betting odds and best pick for Iowa State vs. BYU

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, BYU is a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5 total points. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, is high on the over. The model gives the over a 56% chance of hitting, grading it as an 'A' pick.

The Cougars have the offensive firepower to clear the number on their own, but they will need help from Iowa State's offense. The Cyclones are likely to lean on the run, which could keep the clock moving and limit possessions. However, if Flora breaks a few big runs and the Cyclones find the end zone a couple of times, the over becomes very attainable.

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a dual-threat star who torched Iowa State last year, passing for 307 yards and two touchdowns while adding 49 rushing yards and a score. He is the kind of player who can single-handedly push the total over, especially against a Cyclones defense that has struggled against mobile quarterbacks.

Prediction: Over 46.5 is the smart bet

While Iowa State could keep this game competitive, the over is the most reliable play. Both teams have shown they can score, and the Cougars are particularly explosive. The SportsLine model's track record is strong, and the over has hit in 56% of simulations. If you are looking for a pick, take the over 46.5.

For Iowa State fans, this game is a chance to see how far the Cyclones have come under Rogers. A competitive showing in Provo would be a positive sign for the future, even if the final score does not go their way.

Photo: CBS Sports