Iowa heads to Minneapolis on Saturday, October 24 to face Minnesota at Huntington Bank Stadium, and even a Gophers insider expects the Hawkeyes to keep Floyd of Rosedale for another year. Noel Thompson of the Minnesota site Gopher Hole picked Iowa 24-21 in a rivalry Q&A published this week by Yahoo Sports.
Both teams are coming off a bye week. Iowa travels for a second straight game, while Minnesota sits at 4-2 and trying to recover from a deflating home loss to Purdue.
Where Minnesota stands at midseason
Thompson said the Gophers' season is hard to read because the gap between their best and worst performances is so wide. Minnesota beat Washington on the road and brought home the Little Brown Jug by beating Michigan, then got pushed around at the line of scrimmage in losses to Mississippi State and Purdue.
Being 4-2 with a trophy win is respectable, he said, but the Purdue loss drained the enthusiasm those two Big Ten wins had built. Every remaining game on Minnesota's schedule is either against a ranked opponent or has a trophy on the line, so there is nowhere to hide.
Bowl eligibility is the minimum expectation in Minneapolis, according to Thompson, with seven or eight wins the real goal. Beating Iowa would go a long way toward restoring belief.
Can Drake Lindsey test Iowa's pass defense?
Quarterback Drake Lindsey has been productive for the Gophers, completing nearly 65 percent of his passes for 1,335 yards and nine touchdowns. Javon Tracy leads the receivers with 375 yards on 32 catches, and a trio of Minnesota receivers have topped 200 yards on the season.
Thompson called the passing game the most encouraging part of an otherwise frustrating offense. He pointed to Jalen Smith as a downfield threat, transfer Noah Jennings as a nice addition, and running back Darius Taylor as a dangerous outlet catching passes out of the backfield.
His advice to Minnesota: throw on early downs, take the underneath completions, and avoid putting Lindsey in constant third-and-long situations against an Iowa defense that has given up some plays through the air this season.
Why the Gophers can't run the ball
The biggest red flag for Minnesota is a rushing attack ranked 129th nationally, a stunning number for a P.J. Fleck coached team. The low point came against Purdue, when the Gophers managed 27 yards on 13 carries.
Thompson said the problems start up front. Minnesota is missing its top two centers, forcing All-American Greg Johnson to slide over and anchor the line. The tight end room is the youngest Fleck has had at Minnesota, including true freshman Roman Voss, and that group has struggled to seal edges in the run game.
He also noted that Taylor, one of the Big Ten's best tailbacks at full health, has not shown his usual explosiveness. Thompson argued it is time to give Elon transfer T.J. Thomas more carries in the running game against an Iowa run defense that has been very effective.
Minnesota's defense has a formula, but can it repeat it?
The Gophers run a 4-2-5 scheme in year two under coordinator Danny Collins, and the defense looks more comfortable than a year ago. Anthony Smith, the preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year pick by Cleveland.com, leads the front. Cal transfer T.J. Bush has six tackles for loss and four sacks, and Karter Menz has added four tackles for loss and three sacks.
Linebacker Maverick Baranowski leads the team with 45 tackles, and Iowa fans will recognize cornerback John Nestor, who has 20 tackles, an interception, and two pass breakups.
The concern for Minnesota is what happened in its two losses. The Gophers surrendered 252 rushing yards to Mississippi State and 305 to Purdue. In the Purdue game alone, Fame Ijeboi ran for 195 yards and three touchdowns while Ryan Browne added 81 yards and another score.
Thompson said the formula against Iowa is simple: stop the run first, earn the right to rush the passer, and force true passing situations. If Iowa is picking up five or six yards on early downs, Minnesota's pass rush never gets to matter.
Special teams could swing a close game
Minnesota has been perfect on kicks this season, 11 for 11 on field goals and 20 for 20 on extra points, with three different kickers appearing on the stat sheet. Thompson said there is no drama behind that number. Luke Drzewiecki is the kicker to expect in a clutch moment, and he is 10 for 10 on field goals this season, including a 51-yarder at Washington, after going 18 for 19 at New Mexico last year.
Punter Tom Weston has landed 13 of his 25 punts inside the opponent's 20, nine of them inside the 10. And Javon Tracy is a genuine weapon on punt returns, with 299 return yards, a 17.6-yard average, and two touchdowns.
Thompson admitted Minnesota fans are finally getting a taste of what Iowa fans have enjoyed for two decades: special teams making a positive difference.
The prediction
FanDuel Sportsbook opened with Iowa as a 4.5-point favorite, and the line had climbed to 6.5 by midweek, according to the Yahoo Sports Q&A. ESPN's game listing shows the kickoff scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Saturday at Huntington Bank Stadium.
Thompson's pick: Iowa 24, Minnesota 21. He said home field and the bye should keep it close, but Iowa's consistency and the rushing matchup give the Hawkeyes the edge.
Minnesota already proved his Washington and Michigan predictions wrong, he added. I'd happily go 0-for-3.
Frequently asked questions
When does Iowa play Minnesota?
Iowa faces Minnesota on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 p.m. at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
What is the Iowa vs. Minnesota point spread?
FanDuel Sportsbook opened Iowa as a 4.5-point favorite, and the line moved to 6.5 points by midweek.
Who is favored to win Floyd of Rosedale?
Gopher Hole insider Noel Thompson picked Iowa to win 24-21, citing the Hawkeyes' consistency and the matchup between Iowa's run defense and Minnesota's struggling rushing attack.