Iowa's Ernst seat in play: 2026 midterms could reshape Congress

The 2026 midterm elections are set for November 3, and Iowa voters will play a critical role in determining which party controls Congress. With President Donald Trump midway through his second term, the election serves as a national referendum on his administration's agenda, and the stakes for Iowa could not be higher.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, along with 36 governorships and thousands of state-level offices. For Iowans, the most closely watched race will be the open Senate seat left by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst, a contest that could help decide the balance of power in Washington.

What are midterm elections?

Midterm elections are general elections held every four years at the halfway point of a presidential term. While the presidency is not on the ballot, nearly every other lever of federal and state power is up for grabs. The U.S. Constitution mandates a fixed election calendar under Article I and Article II, unlike parliamentary systems where elections can be called at any time.

In 2026, voters will decide control of both chambers of Congress, 36 governorships, and numerous state attorneys general, secretaries of state, and legislative chambers.

How does the Senate's staggered election system work?

The framers of the Constitution designed the Senate to be a stabilizing, continuous body. To prevent total turnover in a single election, they divided the Senate into three classes, with each class elected on a six-year cycle.

In 2026, the Class 2 Senate seats originally elected in 2020 are on the line. Because Class 2 historically includes a high concentration of seats in competitive swing states, the 2026 Senate map presents a uniquely volatile battlefield for both parties.

What is the historical 'midterm curse'?

Historically, midterm elections present a severe structural headwind for the party occupying the White House. Since the American Civil War, the sitting president's party has lost House seats in more than 90 percent of midterm elections and lost Senate seats in a majority of them.

Experts attribute this phenomenon, often called the 'midterm curse' or 'midterm penalty,' to several core factors:

• Lower voter turnout among younger and lower-income voters who tend to favor the president's party
• A natural desire for checks and balances on the party in power
• Fatigue with the administration's agenda after two years

Rare exceptions have occurred, such as in 1998 during the Clinton administration following economic prosperity and backfiring impeachment efforts, and in 2002 under George W. Bush following the national rallying effect after September 11.

What's at stake in the House of Representatives?

Control of the U.S. House represents the most direct, immediate check on presidential power. The party that holds the House majority controls the legislative docket, decides which bills reach the floor, controls federal budget appropriations, and holds subpoena power to conduct investigations into executive branch agencies.

Entering the 2026 cycle, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the 119th Congress (218-214). Because all 435 congressional districts are contested simultaneously, Democrats need only a small net flip of seats to capture the Speaker's gavel.

The playing field is shaped heavily by congressional redistricting, demographic shifts, and regional economic conditions. Experts rate only roughly 35 to 50 districts nationwide as true 'toss-ups' or highly competitive swing seats.

The primary battleground lies in affluent, highly educated suburban rings surrounding major metropolitan areas, including suburban Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas-Fort Worth, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Minneapolis. Suburban voters, particularly suburban women, have repeatedly served as the decisive swing demographic in recent cycles.

House dynamics are also heavily dictated by member retirements. Dozens of incumbents across both parties have announced retirements during the 2026 cycle, making open seats significantly easier for the opposing party to flip.

What's at stake in the Senate?

While the entire House is up for election every two years, Senate races carry unique national importance due to six-year terms and statewide electorates. The Senate holds sole constitutional authority to confirm federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, approve executive cabinet secretaries and ambassadors, and ratify foreign treaties.

In the 2026 cycle, 35 Senate seats are on the ballot: 33 regular Class 2 seats, alongside two major special elections created by early resignations.

Because Republicans hold more Class 2 seats than Democrats (20 compared to 13), Republicans face a larger defensive footprint numerically. However, many of these Republican-held seats sit in solidly conservative states across the South and Midwest, while several Democratic-held seats sit in tough battleground territory.

What are the key Senate battleground states?

Several high-profile Senate races will determine control of the chamber:

• Georgia: Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces a high-profile re-election bid in one of the country's most closely divided swing states.
• Michigan: With Democratic Senator Gary Peters retiring, Michigan features a wide-open, fiercely contested battle for an open seat.
• Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins, a long-serving moderate, faces another major re-election battle.
• North Carolina: With Republican Senator Thom Tillis retiring, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper's entry into the race sets up one of the most heavily funded contests in the nation.
• Minnesota and New Hampshire: Open Democratic-held seats following retirements have elevated both states into active battleground status.
• Kentucky and Iowa: Open Republican-held seats created by the retirements of high-profile leaders, including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa, have sparked competitive primary and general election campaigns.

Two concurrent special elections in Class 3 add more drama to the Senate map.

How do you win a midterm election?

Winning a midterm election requires vastly different political strategies than winning a presidential campaign. Turnout in presidential election years typically hovers between 60 and 66 percent of eligible voters. In contrast, midterm turnout historically drops significantly, usually ranging between 40 and 50 percent.

Because turnout drops, the composition of the electorate changes. Older Americans, who vote at consistently high rates regardless of the election year, make up a larger percentage of the midterm electorate. Younger voters, lower-income households, and naturalized citizens turn out at lower rates during midterms unless mobilized by highly organized ground operations or compelling ballot measures.

Whichever party successfully converts its passive supporters into active midterm voters gains a disproportionate structural advantage on Election Day.

American political coalitions also continue to undergo significant realignments. College-educated voters, particularly in suburban communities, have increasingly aligned with Democratic candidates, while non-college-educated working-class voters across rural and industrial regions have shifted strongly toward Republicans.

Unaffiliated independent voters, who constitute the fastest-growing political identification segment in many states, hold the deciding vote in close suburban House and Senate districts.

What could we expect from the 2026 midterms?

The outcome of the 2026 midterms will fundamentally dictate the political trajectory of the United States through 2028 and establish the baseline power structure for the 120th United States Congress.

If Republicans retain control of both chambers, President Trump's administration will maintain a clear legislative runway to enact budget packages, tax law adjustments, and judicial confirmations. Conversely, if Democrats capture either chamber, Washington enters an era of divided government.

Finally, the 2026 midterms serve as an official launching pad for the 2028 presidential campaign. Governors who post decisive victory margins in key battleground states will immediately emerge as top-tier prospective presidential contenders. Likewise, Senate candidates and national figures who demonstrate strong appeal among suburban or working-class voters will gain national momentum ahead of the 2028 primary season.

For Iowa voters, the choice is clear: the candidates selected in November will determine not only who represents the Hawkeye State in Washington but also which party sets the agenda for the remainder of the decade.

Frequently asked questions about the 2026 midterms

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

The 2026 midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships will be on the ballot.

Why is the Iowa Senate race so important?

Senator Joni Ernst's retirement has created an open seat in a reliably Republican state. Because Republicans hold 20 of the 33 Class 2 seats up for election, every competitive race matters. Iowa's seat is considered safely Republican, but the primary contest will determine who carries the conservative mantle into the general election.

What is the 'midterm curse'?

The 'midterm curse' refers to the historical tendency for the president's party to lose seats in midterm elections. Since the Civil War, the president's party has lost House seats in over 90 percent of midterms. This is attributed to lower turnout among younger voters and a natural desire for checks and balances.