Iowa's Grunkemeyer Among QBs Poised for Breakout 'Mendoza Leap' in College Football

Iowa football fans got an up-close look at Virginia Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer last season, and now the former Penn State signal-caller is being tabbed as one of the top candidates nationally to make a dramatic leap in production this fall. The term comes from Fernando Mendoza, the former Cal quarterback who transferred to Indiana and went from solid starter to Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 NFL draft pick in just one season.

Grunkemeyer's path has been anything but ordinary. After stepping into a chaotic Penn State situation midseason, he started the final seven games following an injury to Drew Allar and the firing of head coach James Franklin. His first three career starts came against Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana, a brutal welcome to big-time college football.

Despite that gauntlet, Grunkemeyer finished the year strong, throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions over the final four games as the Nittany Lions closed with four straight victories. His season efficiency rating of 142.62 leaves plenty of room for improvement, and he is now at Virginia Tech looking to take the next step.

What is the Mendoza Leap?

The Mendoza Leap refers to a quarterback making a dramatic year-over-year improvement in pass efficiency, similar to what Fernando Mendoza accomplished in 2025. After transferring from Cal to Indiana, Mendoza saw his efficiency rating jump from 144.59 to a nation-leading 182.91, a 38-point improvement. He led the Hoosiers to a perfect 16-0 season, won the Heisman Trophy, and became the top pick in the NFL draft.

While that level of improvement is rare, several quarterbacks enter the 2026 season with the talent and supporting cast to make their own version of the leap.

Arch Manning: Texas' Heir Apparent

Arch Manning enters his fourth year of college football with striking parallels to Mendoza's situation. The Texas quarterback checks in at 6'4, 219 pounds, nearly identical to Mendoza's frame. Manning's 2025 efficiency rating of 144.92 is almost exactly what Mendoza posted at Cal in 2024.

The key difference is the supporting cast. Manning now has a much better group around him, just as Mendoza did after moving to Indiana. The biggest area for improvement is accuracy, as Manning completed just 61.4% of his passes last season.

Josh Hoover: Following the Mendoza Blueprint

Josh Hoover is taking the most direct path to a Mendoza Leap by playing for the same coaches. The Indiana quarterback transferred from TCU, where he threw for over 9,600 yards. Head coach Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan have a decade-long track record of improving quarterbacks at four different stops.

Hoover's main issue has been interceptions. His 3.2% interception rate last season was twice as high as Mendoza's 1.6%. Cutting down on turnovers could unlock a major jump in production.

Gunner Stockton: Georgia's Reliable Arm

Gunner Stockton was steady for the SEC champion Bulldogs last season, posting a 150.59 efficiency rating with a 69.7% completion percentage and a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, he rarely stretched the field, with just four completions over 40 yards in 14 games.

To make the leap, Stockton needs to add more explosive plays to his game. Mendoza averaged 9.3 yards per attempt last season, while Stockton managed just 7.5.

Conner Weigman: Houston's Dual-Threat Option

Conner Weigman revived his career at Houston after transferring from Texas A&M, leading the Cougars to 10 wins. He is a better runner than Mendoza, racking up 700 yards on the ground, but his 2.5% interception rate and two multi-interception games held back his efficiency rating to 147.10.

Austin Simmons: Missouri's Raw Talent

Austin Simmons was the heir apparent to Jaxson Dart at Ole Miss before an injury cost him his job. Now at Missouri, he brings athleticism and a strong arm but remains raw in mechanics and decision-making. He has thrown just 107 college passes and has yet to throw a touchdown against SEC teams other than Arkansas.

Kevin Jennings: SMU's High-Risk, High-Reward QB

Kevin Jennings has the talent to make spectacular plays but also the tendency to make disastrous ones. He has thrown 24 interceptions over the last two seasons and has fumble issues. His 146.82 efficiency rating could improve significantly with better decision-making.

Katin Houser: Illinois' Statistical Twin

Katin Houser's career at East Carolina closely mirrors Mendoza's time at Cal. Both quarterbacks earned starting jobs midseason and then transferred to Big Ten schools. Houser's two-year stats at ECU (418-for-653, 5,306 yards, 37 touchdowns, 17 interceptions) are remarkably similar to Mendoza's numbers at Cal (418-for-629, 4,712 yards, 30 touchdowns, 16 interceptions).

Ethan Grunkemeyer: Virginia Tech's Rising Star

Grunkemeyer's experience against Iowa last season was a trial by fire, but he responded well. After those tough early starts, he settled in and played his best football down the stretch. He has the arm and the moxie to make a significant jump, though he is not much of a running threat.

John Mateer: Oklahoma's Comeback Candidate

John Mateer arrived at Oklahoma as a highly touted transfer but saw his efficiency rating drop from 164.09 at Washington State to 129.36 with the Sooners. A midseason thumb injury requiring surgery likely played a role. Now healthy and reportedly stronger, Mateer could regain his 2024 form.

Alberto Mendoza: The Family Name Continues

Fernando Mendoza's younger brother Alberto is at Georgia Tech after being bypassed at Indiana. He has thrown just 25 college passes and lacks his brother's size, but he brings the same intangibles that helped Fernando rise from overlooked recruit to the top of the football world.

What This Means for Iowa Football

For Iowa fans, Grunkemeyer's development at Virginia Tech is worth watching. The Hawkeyes faced him during his toughest stretch, and his improvement over the remainder of the season showed resilience. If he makes the Mendoza Leap, it will validate what many saw as a promising young quarterback under difficult circumstances.

College football's quarterback landscape is always shifting, and this season could produce another unlikely star. Whether it is a Manning, a Hoover, or a Grunkemeyer, the Mendoza Leap is the kind of story that makes the sport compelling.