Joe Manchin's Independent Push Could Reshape Iowa's 1st District Race

Former Senator Joe Manchin is launching a new effort to boost independent candidates across the country, and Iowa's 1st Congressional District is one of the first battlegrounds. The move comes as polls show record numbers of Americans fed up with both major parties, but history suggests independents face an uphill climb.

Manchin, who represented West Virginia as a Democrat and later an independent, announced the Independent Leadership Council on July 24. The group aims to recruit, fund, and build campaign infrastructure for independent candidates running in the 2026 midterm elections. Among the first recruits is Michael Bridgford, an independent running for Congress in Iowa's 1st Congressional District.

Why Iowa Matters in the Independent Movement

Iowa voters have shown growing frustration with the two-party system. A Gallup survey from January 2026 found that 45 percent of Americans now identify as independents, a record high. That number was just 34 percent in 2006. Independent voters now make up a plurality of the electorate in several states, though not yet Iowa.

But the Hawkeye State's 1st District race could test whether an independent can break through. Bridgford joins a field that includes Republican and Democratic candidates, though the district has leaned Republican in recent cycles. Manchin met with Bridgford and other independent candidates in West Virginia to discuss strategy.

Polls Show Deep Dissatisfaction With Both Parties

The push comes as polling shows both Democrats and Republicans struggling with voters. A YouGov/Economist poll from June found the Democratic Party's net favorability at -17 points, while the Republican Party stood at -19 points. Among independents, just 24 percent viewed Democrats favorably and only 20 percent viewed Republicans favorably.

A separate Harvard/HarrisX poll from July found 43 percent of Americans viewed each party favorably, with independents slightly more favorable toward Democrats at 35 percent versus 33 percent for Republicans. The poll surveyed 1,776 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

President Donald Trump's approval rating has also declined, though Republicans remain hopeful about the economy and border security heading into November.

Can Independents Actually Win?

History suggests independents face steep odds. The U.S. electoral system, with its first-past-the-post structure and single-member districts, makes it hard for third-party or independent candidates to win, said Jacob Neiheisel, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo.

“The support for these independent candidates tends to evaporate when people are in the voting booth,” Neiheisel told Newsweek. “It's just because independent candidates have a vanishingly small chance of winning. People will support them in the abstract, but on the day of the election, they're typically more willing to pull the lever for the least bad major party candidate.”

Similar efforts, such as No Labels, have struggled despite significant financial investment. The system is tailored to a two-party solution, Neiheisel said, and voters face a strategic logic that favors major party candidates.

Where Independents Could Break Through

Some races offer more promise. In Montana, independent Seth Bodnar is running for Senate, and a Tavern Research poll showed him tied with Republican Kurt Alme in a two-way race at 50 percent each. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn leads Republican Senator Pete Ricketts 47 percent to 42 percent in a recent poll. Both states are heavily Republican, meaning independents might appeal to voters who dislike both parties.

Jared McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said 2026 could present opportunities due to Trump being “deeply unpopular” and Democrats having a “fairly toxic brand.” But he added that Manchin's lofty goals may be hard to achieve.

“We have had independents win statewide elections. Look at Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus King in Maine,” McDonald said. “But they still have to caucus with a party if they want to get anything done. Manchin is proposing total independence with regard to voting, but getting things done requires coalition-building, and you can't do that without a party.”

What This Means for Iowa Voters

For Iowans, the Independent Leadership Council's focus on the 1st District means voters may have a credible alternative to the Republican and Democratic candidates this November. Bridgford will need to overcome historical barriers, including low name recognition and the challenge of building a campaign infrastructure from scratch.

Manchin's group describes this cycle as a “pilot experiment” to prove independents can compete. Success or failure will become clearer as the November 3 midterms approach. Observers will watch whether widespread voter dissatisfaction translates into actual votes for independents or whether the two-party system holds firm.

Iowa's 1st District race could be a bellwether for the independent movement's viability in 2026 and beyond.

Photo: Newsweek