Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt predicted Wednesday that Michigan will beat Penn State on Saturday in a matchup of two Big Ten teams still searching for their first conference win, and he says one unit makes the difference clear.
Speaking on his Week 7 preview episode, Klatt forecast a 20-13 Michigan victory at The Big House, with the Wolverines covering the six and a half point spread. His reasoning is simple: Michigan's defense is the best unit on the field by a wide margin.
Two Struggling Programs Meet in Ann Arbor
The stakes are unusually low for a game between two traditional powers. Penn State sits at 3-3 overall and 0-3 in Big Ten play under new head coach Matt Campbell, with losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern, and USC. Michigan is 3-2 and 0-2 in the conference under new head coach Kyle Whittingham, having lost to Oklahoma and Iowa.
Both teams entered the season with higher expectations, and Klatt did not mince words about what a loss would mean.
How about Penn State at Michigan? Oh guys, whoever loses this game is like, yikes, yikes.
Klatt noted that Michigan's early schedule has been tougher than the record suggests, pointing out that the Gophers' loss to Purdue has made the Minnesota result look worse in hindsight. The Sooners and Hawkeyes games, he argued, were not offensive failures.
Iowa Connection Looms Over the Matchup
Hawkeye fans have a direct rooting interest here. Iowa already beat Michigan in conference play, and the Hawkeyes' offensive line earned midseason recognition on the Joe Moore Award Midseason Honor Roll, a sign of the ground game that gave the Wolverines trouble.
Klatt said Michigan's losses to Oklahoma and Iowa came down to late mistakes and penalties, not a broken offense, and he singled out Iowa's final possession as the difference in that game.
OU and Iowa? Not bad. Not bad. The offense wasn't necessarily the reason that they lost the game. It was some of those bonehead mistakes and penalties late and then excellent play from Iowa in that last possession.
For Iowa fans tracking the Big Ten race, a Michigan win would keep the Wolverines relevant in the West picture and validate the Hawkeyes' earlier victory, while a Penn State win would hand Michigan an 0-3 start and raise serious questions in Ann Arbor.
Klatt: Penn State Offense Can't Score Enough
While most of the attention will be on Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood and offensive coordinator Jason Beck, Klatt said the real story is the other side of the ball. He called Michigan's defense elite and said Penn State's receivers cannot get open consistently.
They don't have guys that can get open. I worry about how many points that they can score. I find it difficult to see how Penn State gets even more than 13 points.
According to USA Today's Wolverines Wire, Klatt's prediction marks him as one of the louder national voices backing the Wolverines this week. Prediction markets tracked by MLive also show Michigan as the favorite.
What to Watch Saturday
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EDT Saturday at Michigan Stadium, with the game airing on CBS. The winner finally gets a Big Ten win and a reset for November, while the loser drops to last place in the conference standings and faces a long second half of the season.
Iowa fans can follow the rest of the Week 7 slate with our full weekend preview, including how the idle Hawkeyes and Cyclones fit into the picture.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who does Joel Klatt pick in the Michigan vs. Penn State game?
Klatt picks Michigan to win 20-13, saying the Wolverines' defense is the best unit in the game and Penn State's offense cannot score enough to keep pace.
Why are both teams winless in the Big Ten?
Michigan lost conference games to Oklahoma and Iowa, while Penn State lost to Wisconsin, Northwestern, and USC. Both programs are also adjusting to new head coaches in Kyle Whittingham and Matt Campbell.
What time is the Penn State at Michigan kickoff?
The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. EDT Saturday at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor and airs on CBS.