College football analyst Josh Pate pushed back hard on October 15 against the idea that Ohio State could be left out of the College Football Playoff, and he pointed straight at the Buckeyes' road win over the Iowa Hawkeyes as evidence the selection committee should respect a tough schedule.
Speaking during Thursday's segment of ESPN's Get Up, Pate argued that a 10-2 Ohio State team that loses to Indiana this weekend would still belong in the 12-team playoff field, according to Pro Football Network.
What Pate Said About Ohio State and the Playoff
The fourth-ranked Buckeyes improved to 5-1 with a 45-16 demolition of Maryland and now face their toughest test of the season: a Week 7 road trip to Bloomington to face the fifth-ranked Indiana Hoosiers, the reigning national champions. Pate, host of Josh Pate's College Football Show, said leaving Ohio State out of the playoff after that gauntlet would be indefensible.
If the Buckeyes miss the field, Pate said, it's a dereliction of duty to everybody in that selection room, even if Ohio State's strength of record falls short of preseason expectations.
He also took aim at what he sees as lazy thinking in the playoff conversation.
Here's the absence of intellect sometimes in this conversation that people will end up fooling themselves into having, Pate said. They'll think you either played top-10 teams or you played nobody.
Iowa Hawkeyes Win Becomes Pate's Exhibit A
The part of Pate's argument that will catch the attention of Iowa fans is the example he chose to make his case: Ohio State's road win at Kinnick Stadium over the Hawkeyes.
Ohio State went to Iowa, I'm just gonna give you this as an example, Pate said. And they handled Iowa in their home building. The very next week, Iowa goes to Seattle and dismantles Washington.
Pate noted that Iowa is not a top-10 team, but if the Hawkeyes finish the season floating in that 25-30 range of the rankings, that becomes a very quality win, especially one earned on the road. The Hawkeyes' own surge up the Big Ten standings after routing Washington has been well documented, and it is now doing Ohio State's resume no favors in the eyes of the committee.
Pate then turned the argument into a broader critique of scheduling incentives in the sport. What's the alternative here? he asked. To just schedule tomato cans and one or two teams, and make sure you get one of the two, and you're in?
That mentality cannot be allowed to take root, Pate said.
Why Strength of Schedule Matters This Season
According to ESPN's College Football Power Index, the Buckeyes have the most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the country. After Indiana, Ryan Day's team travels to face USC and a Nebraska squad that has proven resilient at home. The Buckeyes also host Oregon, Northwestern, and bitter rival Michigan in Columbus.
The strength-of-schedule debate was a running sore throughout last season's playoff race. Texas argued its difficult slate, including a road loss at Ohio State, should not count against it. Notre Dame finished 10-2 and still got squeezed out when Miami slipped past the Fighting Irish in the final rankings, a decision that sparked widespread debate about how the committee actually weighs quality losses.
That scrutiny lands as conferences reshape their schedules around competitive balance and playoff positioning. Several marquee nonconference series have been canceled in recent years as conference schedules expanded, a trend Pate warned will only accelerate if the committee rewards soft scheduling.
What the Numbers Say About Ohio State's Chances
PFN's CFB Playoff Meter gives Ohio State a 60.6% chance of reaching the Big Ten championship game, an 80.6% chance of making the playoff field, and a 24.4% chance of playing for the national title. Those odds suggest the committee is more likely than not to agree with Pate, even if the Buckeyes stumble in Bloomington.
Pate himself is picking Indiana to win Saturday's showdown in Bloomington. But he drew a hard line between losing a road game to the fifth-ranked team in the country and the kind of loss that should knock a team out of the playoff entirely.
If you were to flash forward to December and say, Hey, Josh, 10-2 Ohio State, misses the playoff, I would be utterly stunned by that, Pate said.
Why This Matters for Iowa Fans
For Hawkeye supporters, Pate's comments are a double-edged sword. On one hand, the analyst just told a national television audience that Iowa dismantled Washington and could finish as a ranked team, which would make the Hawkeyes a quality opponent on any contender's resume. On the other hand, the same logic means Ohio State's win in Iowa City carries real weight, and the Buckeyes' playoff case is being built partly on the backs of the Hawkeyes.
The Hawkeyes entered the week off following their statement win in Seattle, part of a Week 7 slate that leaves both of Iowa's major programs idle or waiting, as previewed earlier this week. Iowa State also sat out the weekend while the Big Ten's heavyweights sorted out the pecking order at the top.
Every game Iowa wins the rest of the way now strengthens the Buckeyes' argument in December. Every loss weakens it. That is the reality of a playoff system that rewards playing, and beating, teams that finish strong.
FAQ
Did Josh Pate say Ohio State will make the College Football Playoff?
Pate did not guarantee it, but he said he would be utterly stunned if a 10-2 Ohio State team missed the field. He argued the Buckeyes' difficult schedule, including a road win at Iowa, should protect them even if they lose to Indiana.
Why did Josh Pate mention the Iowa Hawkeyes?
Pate used Ohio State's road win over Iowa as proof the Buckeyes deserve credit for a tough schedule. He noted Iowa went to Seattle the next week and dismantled Washington, which boosts the value of Ohio State's win in Iowa City.
Who is favored in Ohio State vs Indiana?
Pate said on Get Up that he is picking Indiana to win the Week 7 matchup in Bloomington, where the fifth-ranked Hoosiers host the fourth-ranked Buckeyes.