Kirk Herbstreit: Ex-Iowa State Coach Matt Campbell Will Win 10 Games at Penn State

ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit is making a bold prediction about Matt Campbell's first season at Penn State, and Iowa fans should pay attention. The former Iowa State coach, who spent a decade building the Cyclones into a Big 12 contender, is expected to lead his new team to a 10-win season in his debut year.

Speaking on College GameDay on September 5 ahead of the LSU vs. Clemson matchup, Herbstreit gave Campbell a strong vote of confidence despite the massive transition from Ames to State College.

“I love Sumrall, but Matt Campbell,” Herbstreit said. “Three-time All-Big-12 Coach of the Year.”

Campbell signed an eight-year, $70.5 million contract with Penn State, averaging about $8.8 million per season. The move came after a remarkable run at Iowa State, where he transformed a program that was rarely in the Big 12 title conversation into a legitimate contender.

What Campbell accomplished at Iowa State

Campbell's decade in Ames produced tangible results. In 2024, the Cyclones went 11-3 and played for the Big 12 championship, finishing No. 15 in the final AP poll. His track record of overachieving with limited resources earned him national respect.

“We know what he did at Iowa State after 10 years of just doing amazing work,” Herbstreit added. “He goes from being at a school where he had to kind of find ways to get it done to now going to a blueblood at Penn State. Could not find a better guy to fit there.”

Why Herbstreit expects immediate success

Herbstreit pointed to Penn State's favorable schedule as a key reason for his confidence. The Nittany Lions avoid traditional Big Ten heavyweights like Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana this season.

“You look at their schedule; they don't play Indiana, they don't play Oregon, they don't play Ohio State,” Herbstreit said. “I wouldn't be shocked if this team is a surprise. Rocco Becht comes over with a bunch of other Iowa State transfers. Penn State's a 10-win type of team this year in my mind.”

Penn State opens at home against Marshall, followed by Temple and Buffalo. The schedule includes Wisconsin, Northwestern, USC, Michigan, Purdue, Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland. Michigan and USC remain the toughest tests, with Penn State hosting the Trojans on October 10 before traveling to Michigan the following week.

Campbell brought his Iowa State team with him

The biggest factor working in Campbell's favor is continuity. Former Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht followed him to State College after starting 39 consecutive games for the Cyclones. Becht finished his Iowa State career with 9,274 passing yards and 64 touchdown passes.

Campbell brought a large portion of his Iowa State roster to Penn State. The program officially added about 39 transfers in January, including Becht, tight end Benjamin Brahmer, and linebacker Caleb Bacon. Twenty-four players followed Campbell from Iowa State, with 11 projected to start for Penn State.

Several of Campbell's Iowa State assistants also made the move, including offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser. This continuity changes the typical first-year-coach equation. Campbell is not starting from scratch. His quarterback knows his system. His coaches know his terminology. Many players already understand his expectations from their years together in Ames.

Penn State's resources give Campbell an edge

Penn State offers Campbell something he never had at Iowa State: elite resources. The Nittany Lions boast a top-tier training facility, a fertile recruiting footprint in Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, and Washington DC, and significant NIL investment. Beaver Stadium's White Out environment, with 106,572 fans, remains one of the most intimidating in college football.

With a favorable schedule, familiar faces, and blue-blood resources, Campbell has every opportunity to justify his massive contract in year one. Herbstreit believes he will deliver.

Frequently asked questions about Matt Campbell at Penn State

How many games will Matt Campbell win at Penn State this year?

ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit predicts Campbell will win 10 games in his first season at Penn State, citing a favorable schedule and the continuity of players and coaches from Iowa State.

Who is Penn State's quarterback this season?

Rocco Becht, who transferred from Iowa State, is Penn State's starting quarterback. He started 39 consecutive games for the Cyclones and threw for 9,274 yards and 64 touchdowns in his career.

Which teams does Penn State avoid on its 2026 schedule?

Penn State does not play Ohio State, Oregon, or Indiana this season, which Herbstreit believes gives the Nittany Lions a significant advantage in reaching a 10-win total.

Photo: Yahoo Sports