Kirk Herbstreit Picks Ohio State Over Arch Manning's Texas: What It Means for the College Football Playoff Race

Kirk Herbstreit has a message for Texas fans: the Longhorns' offense still has him hesitant, and he's putting Ohio State ahead of them in the national championship conversation despite Texas holding the No. 1 ranking and a head-to-head win.

The ESPN analyst made his position clear during the October 5 episode of his show, Nonstop, when asked which team he trusts more heading into the second half of the season.

Herbstreit's Take: Consistency Over Rankings

Texas sits at 4-0 and atop the College Football Playoff rankings, but Herbstreit says the numbers hide a troubling pattern. The Longhorns have looked dominant against lesser opponents but have struggled to sustain drives against Power conference competition.

“I think the inconsistency of Texas's offense has me hesitant. I think their defense is legit, and their offense has great potential. The Tennessee game was an example,” Herbstreit said.

He contrasted that with what he has seen from Ohio State through five weeks.

“So I think with Ohio State, you have seen more consistency in 5 weeks. There are more answers, there's more balance, they can run, and they can throw it. I think their young defense is going to get better,” Herbstreit added.

Texas's Offensive Struggles Against Real Competition

The Longhorns' season stats look strong on paper. Texas beat Texas State 59-7, Ohio State 24-23, UTSA 30-6, and Tennessee 20-17. That adds up to 133 points scored and only 53 allowed.

But the two games against Power conference opponents tell a different story. Texas managed just 336 total yards against Ohio State and only 262 against Tennessee. The offense stalled repeatedly in both games, forcing the defense to keep the game from slipping away.

Quarterback Arch Manning's numbers follow the same pattern. He is 73 of 115 for 862 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions on the season. Against Ohio State, he threw for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception. At Tennessee, he managed 201 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, and took six sacks.

Ohio State's Case: Balance and Efficiency

Ohio State provides the contrast Herbstreit keeps returning to. The Buckeyes are 4-1 and 2-0 in the Big Ten. After a narrow 24-23 loss at Texas, where they blew a 23-3 fourth-quarter lead, Ryan Day's team has responded with increasingly dominant performances.

The Buckeyes beat Ball State 56-3, Kent State 59-3, handled Illinois 42-19, and won at Iowa 31-14. Quarterback Julian Sayin has been efficient, completing 103 of 142 passes for 1,530 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just one interception. At Iowa, he went 20 of 27 for 324 yards and three touchdowns.

What This Means for Iowa Football Fans

For Iowa fans, the Ohio State game at Kinnick Stadium was a measuring stick. The Hawkeyes fell 31-14, but the Buckeyes' performance in Iowa City showed exactly what Herbstreit is talking about. Ohio State's balance on offense and its ability to execute on the road against a solid Big Ten defense impressed the analyst.

The comparison isn't one-sided, though. Ohio State has its own concerns. In Week 4, the Buckeyes beat Illinois 42-19 but gave up 462 yards on defense. And there is a degree of over-reliance on wide receiver Jeremiah Smith that could become an issue later in the season.

Texas's Path Forward: The Red River Rivalry

Texas has a chance to silence the doubters this Saturday in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. A dominant performance would strengthen the Longhorns' hold on the No. 1 ranking. But a slip-up, even a close game, could open the door for Alabama or Georgia to jump them.

Herbstreit's comments reflect a broader debate among college football analysts. Texas has the talent and the defense to win a national championship. But the offense's inconsistency against top-tier competition remains a legitimate concern.

For now, Herbstreit is betting on the team that has shown more answers. Ohio State has passed its early tests. Texas still has something to prove.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Kirk Herbstreit prefer Ohio State over Texas?

Herbstreit believes Ohio State has shown more offensive consistency and balance through five weeks. He cited Texas's struggles against Tennessee and Ohio State as reasons for hesitation despite the Longhorns' perfect record.

What are Arch Manning's stats against ranked teams?

Against Ohio State, Manning threw for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Against Tennessee, he threw for 201 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, and took six sacks.

Can Texas still win the national championship?

Yes. Texas remains undefeated and ranked No. 1. The defense is elite, and the offense has shown it can rally in big moments, as it did in the fourth-quarter comeback against Ohio State.

What does Ohio State need to do to stay in the playoff picture?

The Buckeyes need to continue winning and show improvement on defense. They face a challenging Big Ten schedule, and their performance against top conference opponents will determine their playoff fate.

Photo: Yahoo Sports