Louisiana Senate Runoff Tests Trump's Endorsement Sway
Louisiana Republicans will choose their U.S. Senate nominee in a primary runoff Saturday, six weeks after voters denied incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cassidy a third term. The race between Representative Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming will test President Donald Trump's ongoing influence in Republican primaries, especially after his endorsed candidates for governor lost recent primaries in Iowa and Georgia.
Why does the Louisiana Senate runoff matter for the conservative movement?
President Trump already achieved a major political goal by ousting Cassidy, who often clashed with the America First agenda. Saturday's runoff could further demonstrate Trump's ability to populate Congress with loyalists as he works to advance his policies in his final two years in office. The seat isn't considered a top target for Democrats trying to win back the chamber in November, making the Republican nominee the heavy favorite in the general election.
Who are the candidates in the Republican runoff?
Republican U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming are the finalists. Trump encouraged Letlow to challenge Cassidy in the primary and endorsed her before she entered the race in January. Letlow took office in 2021 after winning a special election to replace her husband, Luke Letlow, who died from COVID-19 in 2020 before taking office.
Fleming served in Congress for eight years leading up to Trump's first term. He ran for U.S. Senate in 2016 but didn't make the runoff, losing to Republican John Kennedy. Trump has reissued his endorsement of Letlow several times since January, including most recently in mid-June. He hasn't endorsed Fleming.
How did the first round of voting play out?
In the May 16 primary, Letlow placed first with about 45% of the vote, falling short of the majority required to avoid a runoff. Fleming placed second with 28% of the vote, just ahead of Cassidy, who gathered about 25%.
Letlow dominated small, mostly rural parishes across the state, winning outright majorities in parishes in northeastern Louisiana and along the Mississippi border. Cassidy performed best in the state's three most populous parishes, leading Letlow by almost a three-to-one margin in Orleans Parish. Fleming performed best in northwestern Louisiana, leading in nine rural parishes.
What is the state of Trump's endorsement record?
The president's endorsees generally hold a strong winning record at the ballot box, but recent high-profile losses have raised questions. Trump's recent picks for governor of Iowa and Georgia lost their primaries, leaving Saturday's contest as a crucial metric for his endorsement power heading into the general election.
In South Carolina, Trump endorsed Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette for governor ahead of the primary. After she was forced into a runoff in a close vote, he announced he was backing both her and her opponent, state Attorney General Alan Wilson. Wilson won the nomination on Tuesday.
Who else is on the ballot in Louisiana?
Louisiana Democrats will also finalize their U.S. Senate nominee, with farmer Jamie Davis and Navy veteran Gary Crockett competing in their party's runoff.
Other primary runoffs include Republican contests for the Public Service Commission and the state board of education. In the education race, incumbent board member and former Republican U.S. Rep. Joseph Cao faces a challenge from educator and business owner Ellie Schroder, a race drawing attention from parental rights advocates.
Primaries for U.S. House were postponed to November after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the state's congressional map, which included a majority Black district that favors Democrats. The postponed U.S. House races will revert to an