Just over two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats hold a three in four chance of capturing the Senate and remain heavy favorites to take the House in Nate Silver's forecast model, according to an analysis published October 19 by The Conversation.
The numbers spell trouble for Republicans nationwide, and the warning signs reach deep into red-state country. Democrats lead by one to four points in Senate polls of Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Ohio, states President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024. In Nebraska, a Republican leads an independent by just 0.1 points.
What the forecast model shows
Silver's model gives Democrats a 75% chance to win the Senate and a 94% chance to win the House. Those figures are up slightly from October 7, when the model showed 74% and 93% respectively.
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 51.3% to 41.7%, a 9.6-point margin. Democrats need at least a four-seat gain to take the Senate because of Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote, and Republicans' 2024 majorities were 220-215 in the House and 53-47 in the Senate.
Independent reporting backs up the forecast. NBC News notes Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win control, and a Pew Research Center survey released October 15 found a majority of Americans expect Democrats to win the House, though the public is more divided on Senate control.
Trump approval hits historic lows
Trump's net approval in Silver's aggregate of national polls stands at -22.3, with 59.8% of Americans disapproving of his performance and 37.6% approving. That is below where any president since Harry Truman stood at this point in a term, with Joe Biden the closest comparison at -11.7.
The president's numbers are weakest on the issues voters feel most directly. Silver's tracking puts Trump at -32.9 on the economy and -48.9 on inflation. On immigration, his net approval is -11.6, an improvement of one point since October 7. On trade, it has dropped two points to -30.6.
Few polls have been taken since Trump's October 9 announcement of a diesel import deal with Russia, according to The Conversation's report.
The Iran war and pump prices loom over the election
The Iran war, ongoing since late February, continues to shape the political environment. Silver's aggregate shows 56.2% of Americans opposed to the war and 35.2% supportive, a net support of -21.0, up slightly from a record low of -27.9 on October 7.
Gas prices may be the more immediate threat to Republican prospects. The international benchmark Brent oil price surged from $96.16 a barrel on September 29 to $109.86 last Friday, its highest level since May. Americans are currently paying an average of $4.30 a gallon for regular gasoline, down from $4.36 on October 7, but The Conversation's analysis notes a lag between oil and retail prices, meaning pump prices are likely to rise again before Election Day.
Silver's models showed Trump and Republicans at their high point in early September, shortly after gas prices hit their August 27 low.
Inflation and wages squeeze Iowa households
The September inflation report, released last Wednesday, showed prices rose 0.6% for the month, up from 0.4% in August. Annual inflation reached 3.7%, the highest pre-midterm level since 1990 outside of the COVID period. Core annual inflation was 2.6%.
Real wages fell 0.5% in September in both hourly and weekly terms. Over the past year, hourly wages are down 0.7% after inflation and weekly wages are down 0.1%.
For Iowa families, those figures land at the kitchen table. Higher fuel costs ripple through farm country quickly, raising the cost of everything from diesel for combines to groceries at the local store. With agriculture central to the state's economy, energy prices and trade policy are not abstract national issues here.
Can Republicans close the gap in the final two weeks?
There are warning lights in the data for Democrats too. Polls that screen for likely voters give Democrats larger leads than polls of registered voters, but that reflects the reality that Democrats turn out better than Republicans in midterms when Trump is not on the ballot.
Silver's own sensitivity analysis shows how fragile the Democratic advantage could be. If polls are overstating Democrats by 3 to 4 points nationally, their chance of winning the Senate drops to 38%. If polls are understating them by that margin, it climbs to 99%.
Bookmakers see the contest the same way the models do. William Hill is pricing a Democratic House and Senate at 8/15, making them clear favorites in both chambers.
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot November 3. Republicans won the House 220-215 and the Senate 53-47 in 2024, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Senate and a handful of House pickups to flip both chambers.
Frequently asked questions
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
The midterms are November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election.
Do Democrats lead in Iowa Senate polls?
Yes. Democrats lead by one to four points in Iowa Senate polls, according to The Conversation's October 19 analysis, despite Trump carrying the state by a double-digit margin in 2024.
How many Senate seats do Democrats need to win control?
Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to control the Senate, given Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote.