NASCAR's 2026 Title Favorites in Trouble: Reddick's Slide, Chevy's Struggles
Three races remain before NASCAR's Chase for the Cup begins, and two of the season's biggest early favorites are suddenly fighting to stay relevant. Tyler Reddick, who won five of the first nine races, has fallen to fourth in the standings. Meanwhile, Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports, once considered a superteam, have won just six races combined and look far from championship form.
Reddick's collapse has been dramatic. After sweeping the Daytona 500, Atlanta, and Circuit of the Americas to start the season, he added wins at Darlington and Kansas. No driver in Cup Series history had ever won the first three races of a season. But since mid-June, his average finish has been 24.2, and he has finished 25th or worse six times in the last nine races.
Last weekend in Iowa, Reddick crashed in the opening stage and did not finish. Cameras showed the 23XI Racing driver shaking his head in the garage. The speed is still there, but bad luck and mechanical issues have wrecked his momentum. At Michigan, a restart crash dropped him to 35th. A late flat tire at the Naval Base Coronado street course cost him a top finish. Power steering failure at Sonoma left him last, and debris punctured an oil cooler at Chicagoland.
Denny Hamlin has outscored Reddick by more than 200 points over the last 10 races. With only three regular-season races left, Reddick needs to finish up front again to steady his championship hopes.
Why is Chevrolet struggling this season?
Chevrolet's problems are deeper than bad luck. Kevin Harvick said on his podcast that he has never seen Hendrick Motorsports go this far into a season without dominating an event. The issue, according to Harvick, is the car's mechanical package. The Chevrolet cars were designed to maximize downforce and minimize drag, but they ended up with more drag than expected. Loose handling over long runs has limited HMS's drivers.
Through 23 races, Hendrick Motorsports has won only two races, both with Chase Elliott. Chevrolet has six wins overall. Shane van Gisbergen won two road course races for Trackhouse Racing, while Daniel Suarez and Carson Hocevar each have one win.
Kyle Larson, the defending champion, has eight top-five finishes but no wins. He last won a race in May 2025. At Iowa, he was caught in a multi-car restart incident on Lap 149 involving teammate Alex Bowman. Larson finished 33rd, Bowman 34th. William Byron has been consistent with top-10 finishes but has not turned them into wins. Elliott has been the brightest star, but even his performance has not matched championship-favorite expectations.
Toyota leads with 14 wins and about 1,072 points. Chevy sits second with six wins and roughly 896 points. Ford has three wins and around 800 points.
Does momentum matter in the Chase format?
NASCAR returned to a Chase-style format for 2026. The top 16 drivers in points advance, and their points are reset based on regular-season finishing positions. A driver can recover during the 10-race Chase, but entering the postseason in poor form still carries weight.
Starting a title fight without recent wins or clean finishes does not help. Hot contenders like Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, and Ryan Blaney carry both statistical and organizational advantages. Mechanical weaknesses and communication issues do not disappear automatically. A regular-season collapse can be evidence of deeper problems that persist into the postseason. The Chase can reset the points, but it cannot reset a team's problems.
What can save Reddick and Chevrolet?
For Reddick, the path is straightforward. He needs clean finishes in the remaining races, ideally wins and consistent top-five results. He needs to recover enough points to improve his seeding position and avoid starting the Chase at a significant disadvantage. Most importantly, he needs to rediscover the form that brought him five wins early in the season.
For Chevrolet and HMS, the checklist is broader. They need to fix the excess drag and keep pace with Toyota's development. Larson needs to look like a genuine race-winning threat again. Elliott needs week-to-week consistency to secure a strong seeding position. Byron has to turn his speed into wins instead of settling for good finishes.
The Chase gives them 10 races to solve problems and string together results. The final verdict will be decided only after the remaining regular-season races are complete.
For Iowa fans, the next three weeks will show whether Reddick and Chevrolet can turn things around or whether the early favorites will spend the postseason trying to rediscover what they lost in the summer.