NASCAR's Chase Bubble Drivers Face Last Clean Shot at Loudon Before Daytona Chaos

With just two races remaining before NASCAR's 16-driver Chase field is locked in, New Hampshire Motor Speedway offers bubble drivers something increasingly rare on the calendar: control. Sunday's Dollar Tree 301 at the 1.058-mile flat oval gives contenders one final opportunity to dictate their own fate before next weekend's unpredictable restrictor-plate race at Daytona scrambles the playoff picture.

Shane van Gisbergen currently holds the 16th and final Chase position, sitting 50 points ahead of Ryan Preece. The pressure is mounting for a group of drivers including Preece, Ross Chastain (minus-63), Brad Keselowski (minus-78), Erik Jones (minus-81) and Michael McDowell (minus-104), all of whom need a strong afternoon at the track known as the Magic Mile.

Why Loudon rewards early dominance

Recent history at New Hampshire shows that drivers who establish themselves early tend to stay there. Five of the last six winners started inside the top five, and the Stage 1 winner has gone on to win each of the last three races. Only one of the last 14 events has required overtime, meaning late-race chaos rarely steals a win from a deserving driver.

For Chase hopefuls, that means Loudon offers an opportunity to build an afternoon rather than merely survive one, a stark contrast to the chaos that awaits at Daytona.

Preece: 'We need a home run right now'

Ryan Preece, who qualified 18th, acknowledged the urgency of the moment heading into Sunday's race.

I felt like we took a step in the right direction after Iowa for Richmond, and then I feel like we're going to take another step when we come here today, Preece said. There's a lot of things I'm looking forward to, and today I was just in the trailer, and Derek (Finley, crew chief) said, 'Like, we need a home run right now.' So that's the plan.

The math isn't in full desperation mode for everyone on the bubble, but the calendar certainly is. No driver below the Chase cut gained ground at Richmond, and the gap between van Gisbergen and Preece only widened.

Team Penske arrives at the right time

Team Penske essentially owned New Hampshire last year. Joey Logano started from the pole and led 147 laps, while Ryan Blaney led another 116, won Stage 1 and took the checkered flag. Logano finished fourth.

That performance looks increasingly relevant as Penske has won three of the last four Cup races after visiting Victory Lane just once through the season's first 19 events. The team's three drivers combined to lead 807 laps over the last five races after totaling 480 in the first 19.

Logano arrives at his home track fresh off a Richmond victory, his second win in four races, while Blaney sits second in points and returns as the defending New Hampshire winner. Austin Cindric also enters with momentum after a season-best third-place finish at Richmond moved him to 15th in the Chase standings, 57 points above the elimination line.

I think Team Penske's done a good job all year of just kind of staying in the game, and on my group side I feel like we've gotten better at some places where we've really needed to improve and close the gap a little bit to the Toyotas that were really strong, Blaney said. So yeah, I think we're in a good spot at Team Penske and kind of hitting some really good momentum right before we get going in The Chase, so hopefully we can continue that.

Bell seeks first win of 2026 at fitting venue

Christopher Bell has won two of the last four New Hampshire races and finished sixth or better in four of his six Cup starts there. Yet he arrives in Loudon with one of the strangest stat lines of the season: 10 top fives, seven runner-up finishes and still no victory in 2026.

The Magic Mile would be a fitting place to finally change that.

We know that this is a huge opportunity for us, and then Daytona, you know, is going to be a completely unknown, Bell said. So yeah, I think this one is kind of in our hands, to where we can control our own destiny, and then Daytona, we're just going to go out there and basically go to Vegas and gamble and see what happens.

Hamlin leads points, dominates non-drafting ovals

Denny Hamlin enters as the series points leader and perhaps the most consistently dangerous driver on traditional ovals. His three New Hampshire victories are the most among active drivers, and his 9.94 average finish here ranks second all time among drivers with multiple starts.

Hamlin has finished inside the top five in 11 consecutive races on non-drafting ovals, a run that includes three straight wins at Nashville Superspeedway, Michigan International Speedway and Pocono Raceway. It's the longest such streak since Kevin Harvick posted 12 straight in 2020.

Other threats and subplots at Loudon

Josh Berry, while eliminated from Chase contention, has finished in the top three in both of his Cup starts here, including runner-up to Blaney last season. He enters with three consecutive top 10s, the best three-race stretch of his Cup career, and could play spoiler.

Kyle Larson has never won at Loudon but owns three runner-up finishes, six top fives and nine top 10s in 15 starts. Chase Briscoe has finished in the top 10 in each of the last three New Hampshire races and comes in with six top-six finishes across the last seven events overall.

Hendrick Motorsports arrives having finally put all four cars in the top 10 at Richmond, its first such performance since April 2025, providing one more subplot for a team still determining whether its late-summer surge is real.

Loudon returns to Chase rotation in 2027

Sunday's race carries an unusual wrinkle: when the Cup Series returns to Loudon in 2027, the track returns to the Chase rotation. That gives teams an opportunity to race for everything immediately in front of them while also collecting notebook data that could become substantially more valuable a year from now.

What's at stake Sunday

For the Chase bubble, New Hampshire is the last clean opportunity to move the line before Daytona scrambles the board. For Penske, it's a chance to carry a suddenly torrid stretch back to the site of last year's domination. For Hamlin, Bell and a deep group of proven Loudon performers, it's another opportunity at a track that has historically rewarded championship-caliber drivers. Thirteen of the last 17 New Hampshire winners eventually or previously won a Cup title.

The Chase is not locked in after Loudon. But with Daytona waiting on the other side, Sunday might be the last true chance for a driver to control his own championship destiny.

Race details at a glance

• Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, New Hampshire
• Track length: 1.058 miles
• When: 2 p.m. ET Sunday
• Where to tune in: USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
• Race purse: $11,233,037
• Race distance: 301 laps | 318.46 miles
• Stages: 70 | 185 | 301