NATO Deputy Commander Warns Putin Growing 'Cavalier' as Ukraine War Drags On

Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming increasingly reckless and willing to accept risk as his war in Ukraine drags on, NATO's deputy commander in Europe warned Tuesday. Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer spoke at a security conference in Estonia, cautioning that Putin is actively seeking to divide Western allies through provocative actions.

Stringer's warning comes amid growing concerns from European leaders that Moscow may be planning bolder attacks against NATO members, including sabotage and espionage. He emphasized that NATO must remain vigilant and avoid falling into a trap of overreaction, which Putin would welcome.

What did NATO's deputy commander say about Putin's behavior?

Stringer described the current environment as 'febrile' and warned that Putin is becoming 'increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting.' He stressed that NATO members need to be careful in their responses, as Putin would like to provoke the alliance into an overreaction.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently suggested Russia might target NATO nations with deliberate drone or missile strikes while claiming they were accidental. French President Emmanuel Macron has also asked his government to prepare plans to protect critical infrastructure against potential drone and cyberattacks.

Are NATO allies united in their assessment of the threat?

While some European leaders express alarm, others urge calm. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics told reporters at the U.N. General Assembly that a direct military attack on NATO is unlikely, noting that Russia is fully absorbed in Ukraine and has not built up forces near Baltic borders.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker, speaking in Des Moines, Iowa, dismissed concerns that Russia is testing the alliance. 'Putin does not want a conflict with NATO,' Whitaker said. He acknowledged that hybrid activities like sabotage are concerning but warned against overreacting, noting that 'that's exactly what I think our adversaries would want or hope for.'

How is Russia already testing NATO defenses?

European countries have faced multiple incursions of Russian drones and missiles, along with a covert campaign of disruption that began after Putin's invasion of Ukraine. An Associated Press interactive map tracking the campaign shows escalation from 59 incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 incidents, ranging from vandalism and propaganda to arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks.

In August, German officials accused Moscow of plotting an attack at Leipzig airport where a drone with explosives was found near a Ukrainian plane. British officials disrupted a Russian plot to sabotage a drone factory outside London. An Estonian defense company was set on fire, and a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded, though neither has been publicly attributed to Russia.

What is Putin trying to achieve with these actions?

Stringer said Putin is 'looking at a whole number of things' to create division between NATO allies because his campaign in Ukraine is going badly. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal likened the Russian leader to a 'rat in the corner,' escalating activity in Europe to break Western support for Kyiv.

Russia's gains on the front lines have been slow and costly, with more than half a million dead. Ukraine's deep-strike campaign targeting Russia's energy industry has caused fuel shortages in 80 of 83 Russian regions, according to Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the U.K.'s defense staff.

Will Putin launch a direct military attack on NATO?

Baltic leaders argue that Moscow will dig deeper as winter approaches, with attacks on infrastructure likely to increase. However, Michal said it is currently 'improbable' that Putin will launch a conventional military attack on Europe because of the threat of NATO response and because his forces are tied down in Ukraine.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the AP in Iowa that Putin 'knows that the United States and Europe are totally intertwined.' Rutte added, 'We have to make sure that we are prepared, we are strong, and he knows it. And if he does anything silly, he knows our reaction will be tough.'

What does this mean for Iowa and the United States?

For Iowans, the situation underscores the importance of a strong national defense and continued U.S. leadership within NATO. Ambassador Whitaker's comments in Des Moines highlight that Iowa is not isolated from global security concerns. The state's agricultural and manufacturing sectors, which rely on stable international markets, could be affected by prolonged instability in Europe.

As the Biden administration and Congress debate defense spending and support for Ukraine, Iowans should pay attention to how these decisions impact both national security and the local economy. The stakes are high, and the need for steady, principled leadership has never been greater.

This article is based on reporting from The Associated Press.