New Hampshire Senate Race: Republicans See Pickup Opportunity Despite Poll Deficit

Republicans view the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race as one of their few pickup opportunities in this year's midterm elections, but a new poll shows Democratic Representative Chris Pappas holding a lead over his two potential Republican rivals. The race could have major implications for control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.

What Does the Latest Poll Show?

The St. Anselm College poll released Thursday found Pappas leading both Republican candidates in a general election matchup. Former New Hampshire Senator John Sununu, who held the seat from 2003 to 2009, keeps the race closer than former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.

According to the poll, Pappas holds a 7-point lead over Sununu, 48 percent to 41 percent, and a 12-point lead over Brown, 49 percent to 37 percent. The survey was conducted August 17-18 among 1,411 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

In the primary races, Pappas leads progressive Democrat Karishma Manzur 59 percent to 28 percent. On the Republican side, Sununu leads Brown by 30 points, 54 percent to 24 percent, ahead of the September 8 primary.

Why Is New Hampshire a Target for Republicans?

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring at the end of her term, opening a seat in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by just 3 points in the 2024 presidential election. New Hampshire has backed Democrats in federal races over the past decade, but often by slim margins.

Historically, the party holding the White House loses seats in midterms. President Donald Trump's approval rating has slipped in recent months amid growing economic concerns around the cost of living and inflation. Still, Republicans believe the open-seat status and a strong candidate could put the race in play.

Pappas has represented New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, viewed as the more competitive of the state's two districts, since 2019. His family owns the Manchester restaurant Puritan Backroom, which has been credited with inventing chicken tenders.

What Do Other Polls Show?

Other surveys suggest a closer race than the St. Anselm College poll indicates. A Peak Insights poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee found Pappas up only 1 point, 43 percent to 42 percent. That survey polled 500 likely voters June 24-27 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted among 2,232 likely voters June 18-23 showed Pappas up 3 points against Sununu, 47 percent to 44 percent, and 14 points against Brown. An Emerson College poll earlier this year showed Pappas up 1 point against Sununu and 9 points over Brown.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as Lean Democratic.

How Do Prediction Markets Rate the Race?

Prediction markets show Democrats as favorites to hold the seat in November. Kalshi gave Democrats an 89 percent chance of winning the race, while Democrats' chances stood at 86 percent on Polymarket as of Friday afternoon. These markets aggregate real-money wagers into probability estimates, though they measure trader sentiment at a given moment and do not always accurately predict the future.

What About the Governor's Race?

The St. Anselm College poll also showed Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Cinde Warmington in the gubernatorial race by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent. Republicans have won every gubernatorial race in New Hampshire since 2016, even as the state leans Democratic at the federal level.

Why Are Independents Key?

Winning over independents is critical in New Hampshire, where undeclared voters make up the largest portion of the electorate. As of August 3, 351,815 New Hampshirites were not registered with either party, compared to 299,976 registered Republicans and 247,069 registered Democrats.

New Hampshire is generally viewed as politically moderate with a libertarian streak, and it has been willing to back politicians from both parties over the years. The state's southern and central regions are denser around cities like Manchester, Concord, Portsmouth, Dover and Nashua, which lean Democratic. Many suburbs and smaller towns in southern New Hampshire are more Republican.

Can Democrats Win Senate Control?

New Hampshire is a must-win for Democrats if they want to flip control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must defend all of their seats and flip four others to take control.

Democrats face a difficult map, defending seats in Georgia and Michigan, two states Trump won in 2024. Maine and North Carolina are viewed as Democrats' top flip opportunities. In Maine, longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. In North Carolina, Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper has built a polling lead against Michael Whatley.

Even if Democrats win all of those races, Republicans would still hold a 51-49 majority. Democrats would need to win at least two seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, with Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas viewed as potentially competitive.

If Republicans pull off a victory in New Hampshire, Democrats would need to flip three of those seats, a more difficult feat given their conservative leans.