New Poll Shows Texas Governor Race Tightening: Abbott Leads Hinojosa by Just 1 Point

A new poll shows Texas Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by just 1 percentage point, signaling a closer-than-expected race less than two months before Election Day. The survey, conducted by Overton Insights and the Texas Public Policy Foundation, found Abbott with 46.9 percent support among 1,167 likely voters compared to Hinojosa's 45.8 percent, with about 7 percent undecided.

Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990, and voters have backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980. Despite the tight numbers, the Cook Political Report still rates the race as Likely Republican, though it recently adjusted the contest from Solid Republican.

What Does the Tight Poll Mean for the Texas Governor's Race?

Political analysts say the close margin reflects a competitive political environment rather than a fundamental shift in Texas politics. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek:

This poll changes the temperature of the governor's race, but not necessarily the favorite. This is evidence that the political environment is competitive rather than evidence Abbott has suddenly become an underdog.

Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, expressed skepticism about how undecided voters might break:

I worry about how leaners are allocated between the candidates; it seems implausible to me that leaners will break 2-to-1 for the Republican candidates, Abbott and Paxton, given the current political climate.

How Does President Trump's Approval Rating Factor Into the Race?

The poll, conducted August 24-26, also found that 56 percent of Texas respondents disapproved of President Donald Trump's job performance, while 44 percent approved. Nationally, Trump's approval rating stands at 35 percent with 59 percent disapproval, according to Civiqs' rolling tracking poll.

Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, said the president's numbers are affecting Republican candidates nationwide:

This survey result underscores the extent to which President Trump's low approval ratings are dragging down Republican candidates across the country, transforming light blue states into dark blue states, purple states into light blue states, pink states into purple states, and red states into pink states.

What Do Other Polls Show in the Texas Governor's Race?

Most surveys show Abbott leading, though by narrower margins than his 11-point victory over Beto O'Rourke in 2022. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll gave Abbott a 7-point lead, 49 percent to 42 percent. A Texas Southern University poll showed Abbott ahead 49 percent to 43 percent.

The race reflects demographic divides. Abbott leads among white voters by 24 points and among men by 24 points. Hinojosa holds advantages among Latino voters (14 points), Black voters (59 points), and women (11 points).

How Does Abbott's Fundraising Advantage Shape the Contest?

Abbott entered the race with $106 million in the bank, according to The Texas Tribune. His campaign has spent more than $54.5 million during the 2026 cycle and has over $67.2 million in cash on hand. Hinojosa's total expenditures are just under $4 million, with about $3 million in cash on hand.

Jones noted the financial disparity:

Unlike the U.S. Senate race where Talarico and his supporters are on a level financial playing field with Paxton, Hinojosa will likely be dramatically outspent by Abbott.

When Will Texans Vote for Governor?

Election Day is November 3. Early in-person voting begins October 19, and the voter registration deadline is October 5.

What About the Texas Senate Race?

The Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico is nearly deadlocked. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate it a toss-up. The Overton Insights poll found Talarico leading 44 percent to 43.4 percent, with leaners making the race effectively tied at 50 percent each.

Rottinghaus said ticket splitting is possible:

Modern Texas is much less of a ballot-splitting state than it once was. We will certainly see some selective ticket splitting: voters who are willing to vote Abbott for governor but Talarico for Senate.

The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests nationwide this year, including high-profile races in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia.