College football's Week 7 slate arrives Saturday, October 17, headlined by Indiana hosting Ohio State in what FOX Sports calls the biggest home game in Hoosiers history, and the matchup carries real implications for Iowa fans tracking the Big Ten race.
Indiana, the reigning national champion and winner of 22 straight games, enters as an underdog at home against the Buckeyes. FOX Sports' expert picker, in analysis published Thursday, is leaning toward the Under in the total, arguing neither offense is built to sustain long scoring drives against the other's defense.
With a 24-team College Football Playoff deal near, every Big Ten result now carries extra weight for programs like Iowa trying to climb the ladder.
Why the FOX Sports Pick Favors the Under
According to FOX Sports, Indiana is one of the most well-prepared teams in the country. The Hoosiers do not turn the ball over, they avoid penalties, and they make winning plays late. Since 2025, Indiana is 6-0 in one-score games, including a six-point win over Northwestern and a three-point escape against Nebraska last weekend.
But the FOX Sports analysis flags cracks in the armor. Quarterback Josh Hoover, who replaced departed starter Fernando Mendoza, is accurate but dependent on explosive plays. The offensive line, dominant a year ago, has slipped in both run blocking and pass protection. The defense, meanwhile, is allowing about two more plays of 10-plus yards per game than it did last season, and it lacks an elite lockdown corner.
Ohio State's Questions Mirror Indiana's
Ohio State, one of the best teams in the country, has its own scoring concerns against quality defenses, the FOX Sports analysis notes. Going back to the start of last season, the Buckeyes managed 14 points against Texas, 10 against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, and 14 against Miami in the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State scored 31 against Iowa earlier this season, but the Buckeyes' offensive line is banged up and can be overwhelmed in long stretches by stronger units. Star receiver Jeremiah Smith, whom the analysis calls the best player in football, is force-fed the ball. If Indiana doubles him, the analysis asks, where does quarterback Julian Sayin turn for big plays?
What the Oddsmakers Are Saying
ESPN's Week 7 odds breakdown lists Indiana-Ohio State among the top 25 matchups of the week. Arizona Republic columnist Bill Speros notes the past two national champions have one loss combined this season, but the edge on the betting line belongs to the Buckeyes: Indiana is just 1-5 against the spread this year despite its 6-0 record, per AZCentral.
Notre Dame at BYU: The Other Headliner
The second marquee game of the weekend sends Notre Dame to Provo to face BYU. FOX Sports' pick is blunt: the Irish should cover. BYU has not played anyone close to Notre Dame's level this season, with its closest wins coming by 11 over Arizona and 17-10 over TCU.
The Cougars will be without star running back LJ Martin, putting more pressure on dual-threat quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who has thrown for over 1,000 yards and rushed for 258. BYU ranks 87th in air yards per completion and sits 131st nationally in red-zone touchdown defense, which is a recipe for trouble against Notre Dame's defense and balanced offense.
Why This Matters for Iowa
Iowa fans have a direct rooting interest here. Ohio State's 31-point output against the Hawkeyes looked impressive at the time, but the FOX Sports analysis questions whether that performance will carry over against Indiana's defense. A Buckeyes loss in Bloomington would reshape the Big Ten standings and strengthen the argument that Iowa's early-season schedule deserves a second look.
For Iowa bettors, the Week 7 board offers plenty of angles. New Iowa bettors can still claim a first-bet offer worth up to $1,500 before Saturday's kickoff.
CBS Sports reports the Week 7 schedule features six top-25 matchups, giving contenders plenty of chances to build playoff resumes before the first selection committee rankings come out next month. Iowa fans who remember the 2025 bracket reveal that would have sent Iowa to Miami know how quickly that math can change.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who does FOX Sports pick in Ohio State vs. Indiana?
FOX Sports' expert picker favors the Under on the total, arguing neither offense will sustain enough long drives to produce a high-scoring game in Bloomington.
What is Indiana's record in close games?
According to FOX Sports, Indiana is 6-0 in one-score games since 2025, including wins over Northwestern and Nebraska this season.
Which running back is missing for BYU against Notre Dame?
BYU star running back LJ Martin is out for the game, per FOX Sports, leaving quarterback Bear Bachmeier to carry the Cougars' offense.