Ohio State vs. Texas Showdown Has Big Ten, SEC Playoff Implications for Iowa Fans

When No. 1 Ohio State travels to face No. 4 Texas on Saturday night, the game carries far more weight than a typical September nonconference matchup. The result will shape the College Football Playoff picture, the Heisman Trophy race, and could ultimately determine how many Big Ten teams like Iowa earn a spot in the bracket.

This is the closest thing college football has to a playoff game in September. The two powerhouse programs met just over a year ago, with Ohio State winning 14-7 in a defensive slugfest. That loss ultimately cost the Longhorns an at-large playoff berth when the selection committee bypassed the three-loss SEC team.

How can Texas beat Ohio State?

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has rebuilt the Longhorns' offense around key transfers, including wide receiver Cam Coleman and running back Hollywood Smothers. The unit looks far more explosive than the one that managed just seven points against the Buckeyes last year.

But the biggest factor in Saturday's game will be turnovers. Since quarterback Arch Manning took over last season, Texas is a perfect 11-0 when winning the turnover battle but 0-3 when losing or tied. Ohio State, meanwhile, was behind or tied in turnover margin in all six of its losses since the start of the 2023 season.

The Longhorns' path to victory requires going punch for punch with the Buckeyes' high-powered offense. Asking the Texas defense to again hold Ohio State to two scores is unreasonable given how far quarterback Julian Sayin has come under new coordinator Arthur Smith, a former NFL head coach.

What does Ohio State need to do to win?

The blueprint from last year remains: make Manning uncomfortable and disrupt his timing. The Buckeyes forced the Texas quarterback out of the pocket and limited explosive plays that could flip momentum.

That task gets harder this year. Coleman gives Manning a big-bodied, NFL-ready target in the red zone, and Smothers doubles as a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. Ohio State's defense must pressure Manning while keeping everything in front of them.

Will Arch Manning become the Heisman favorite?

A strong performance and a win Saturday night would vault Manning to the forefront of the Heisman Trophy race. He has everything voters look for: name recognition, a major platform, a talented supporting cast, and multiple chances to make high-profile statements.

What's missing is a defining moment. Saturday provides that opportunity on the biggest stage of the young season.

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith could also emerge as the Heisman favorite with another dominant performance. How voters weigh Smith against teammate Julian Sayin will be a dominant theme of this year's race.

What happens if Texas beats Ohio State?

A Texas win creates a new No. 1 in the Coaches Poll and gives the Longhorns enormous credibility with the selection committee. Texas would gain room for error, potentially losing twice or even three times in the SEC and still making the playoff.

More importantly for Iowa fans, a Texas victory strengthens the SEC's case in comparisons with the Big Ten. The SEC is perceived as deeper overall, which is why the league placed five teams in last season's tournament. A Longhorns win could allow for a fourth or even fifth SEC team in the bracket.

What happens if Ohio State beats Texas?

Winning on the road would cement the Buckeyes as the unquestioned No. 1 team in the country. It would also put the Big Ten in early position to land more than three playoff teams.

The Big Ten currently has three teams heavily favored to make the bracket: Ohio State, No. 5 Indiana, and No. 6 Oregon. But the SEC's depth could create fierce debates when comparing second-level contenders from each league.

The SEC went 0-3 in last season's playoff against fellow Power Four teams, a fact that could linger in the committee's minds. An Ohio State win could give Big Ten teams like No. 14 Southern California, No. 16 Penn State, No. 19 Washington, and No. 21 Iowa the benefit of the doubt against similar SEC contenders if they finish with two or fewer losses.

Why should Iowa fans care about this game?

Iowa sits at No. 21 in the Coaches Poll and controls its own path to the playoff. But the Hawkeyes' margin for error depends heavily on how the committee compares the Big Ten's second tier against the SEC's.

An Ohio State victory strengthens the Big Ten's position and could be the deciding factor that gets Iowa into the bracket over a comparable SEC team. A Texas win does the opposite, boosting the SEC's credibility and potentially squeezing out a Big Ten contender.

Saturday's game in Columbus is appointment viewing for any Iowa fan with playoff aspirations in mind. The outcome will echo well beyond the final whistle, influencing the Heisman race, conference bragging rights, and the December selection committee's decisions.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY and has been adapted for Just The News Iowa readers.