Phil Steele’s 2026 Preseason Top 25: Iowa’s Schedule Gets a Big Ten Test

Phil Steele, the veteran college football analyst with a near-perfect track record, has released his projection for the 2026 AP preseason Top 25. For Iowa fans, the rankings bring a clear message: the Hawkeyes’ road to the College Football Playoff runs through a gauntlet of elite teams, including a trip to Ohio State. Steele, who correctly predicted 95 percent of top-10 teams over the last 17 preseasons, sees the Buckeyes as the No. 1 team, with Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Georgia rounding out the top five.

How Phil Steele’s Predictions Hold Up

Steele’s accuracy is legendary. Of the 170 teams he placed in the top 10 over 17 years, he nailed 162 — a 95 percent success rate. That includes a nine-year stretch where he correctly forecast all 10 teams. For Iowa, this means his projections carry weight as the Hawkeyes prepare for a schedule that features road games at Ohio State, Indiana, and USC, plus home matchups against Oregon and Michigan.

Ohio State at No. 1: What It Means for Iowa

Steele projects Ohio State as the preseason No. 1, citing wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, Heisman finalist quarterback Julian Sayin, and a strong offensive line. But the Buckeyes face a tough schedule, including a road test against Iowa. The Hawkeyes, known for their physical defense and home-field advantage at Kinnick Stadium, could be a spoiler. Steele notes that Ohio State’s defensive coordinator Matt Patricia must replace key players, which could open the door for Iowa’s offense.

Iowa’s Position in the Big Ten Landscape

While Iowa is not in Steele’s top 10, the Hawkeyes are a perennial contender in the Big Ten West. The conference’s strength is evident: Steele has Ohio State at No. 1, Oregon at No. 4, Indiana at No. 6, and USC and Nebraska also drawing tough road games. For Iowa, the path to the playoff likely requires wins over these teams. The Hawkeyes’ defense, led by coordinator Phil Parker, remains a strength, but the offense must improve to compete with the conference’s elite.

Top 10 Breakdown: Key Teams and Games

Steele’s full top 10 includes:

• No. 1 Ohio State: Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin lead a potent offense, but a tough schedule includes Iowa.
• No. 2 Texas: Arch Manning improved late last season, and the Longhorns have elite transfers.
• No. 3 Notre Dame: Quarterback CJ Carr and a strong defense could make the Irish a playoff contender.
• No. 4 Oregon: Dante Moore returns, and the Ducks have one of the best receiver corps in the country.
• No. 5 Georgia: Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs are favored for a third straight SEC title.
• No. 6 Indiana: Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are coming off a historic 16-0 national championship run.
• No. 7 Miami: New quarterback Darian Mensah leads a potent offense.
• No. 8 Texas Tech: Will Hammond takes over at quarterback after a chaotic offseason.
• No. 9 Ole Miss: Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy return.
• No. 10 LSU: Lane Kiffin’s roster has questions, but a tough schedule includes Clemson.

What This Means for Iowa Fans

Iowa’s schedule is one of the toughest in the Big Ten. Road games at Ohio State, Indiana, and USC, plus home games against Oregon and Michigan, mean every week is a battle. Steele’s projections highlight the challenge: the Hawkeyes must beat at least two of these top-10 teams to have a realistic shot at the playoff. For Iowa, the key is consistency on offense and the ability to win close games, a hallmark of Kirk Ferentz’s tenure.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is Phil Steele’s preseason top 25?

Steele has correctly predicted 95 percent of top-10 teams over the last 17 preseasons, including a nine-year perfect streak.

Does Iowa have a chance to make the College Football Playoff?

Yes, but the Hawkeyes face a tough schedule with road games at Ohio State, Indiana, and USC, plus home games against Oregon and Michigan. Winning at least two of those games is critical.

Who is the No. 1 team in Steele’s projection?

Ohio State is projected at No. 1, led by wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and quarterback Julian Sayin.

Conclusion

Phil Steele’s 2026 preseason top 25 sets the stage for a thrilling college football season. For Iowa, the message is clear: the Hawkeyes must rise to the challenge of a brutal Big Ten schedule. With a strong defense and a hungry offense, Iowa has the tools to compete. But as Steele’s track record shows, the rankings are just the beginning. The real test comes on the field.