SportsLine Model Reveals Week 4 College Football Picks, Including Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction

The SportsLine computer model has crunched the numbers for Week 4 of the college football season, and it has some intriguing predictions for Iowa Hawkeyes fans and bettors alike. The model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has released its projected scores and best bets for the biggest matchups on the slate, including Iowa's road trip to face the Michigan Wolverines.

Iowa enters Saturday's contest as a 5.5-point underdog against Michigan, with the over/under set at 38.5 points. The Hawkeyes will look to bounce back and make a statement in Ann Arbor, but the model's projections suggest a tight, low-scoring affair typical of Big Ten defensive battles.

What are the top Week 4 college football predictions?

The model has been profitable so far this season, sitting at 22-19 on all top-rated college football picks. It has been upgraded for the 2026 season to better factor in the transfer portal, giving it an edge in projecting team chemistry and depth.

One of the headline predictions comes from the SEC, where the model projects Georgia to beat Oklahoma 28-20. That makes Oklahoma (+14) the play against the spread in 56% of simulations, while the Over (44.5) hits 55% of the time. Oklahoma's defense has been stout, not allowing more than 17 points in any game, but the Sooners' offense has struggled, barely squeaking past New Mexico State 14-6 last week.

How does the model see Iowa vs. Michigan playing out?

While the full Iowa-Michigan score prediction is available exclusively at SportsLine, the model's track record suggests it has a strong read on this matchup. The Hawkeyes have traditionally relied on a dominant defense and a punishing ground game, while Michigan has shown balance on both sides of the ball.

With a low over/under of 38.5, the model expects a defensive struggle. Bettors looking for an edge should consider the under, as both teams feature physical front sevens and conservative offensive game plans.

Which underdogs could pull off upsets in Week 4?

The model is also backing multiple underdogs this week, including one in a marquee matchup. Texas is a 4.5-point road favorite against Tennessee in Knoxville, where Arch Manning will play his first game at Neyland Stadium nearly 30 years after his uncle, Peyton Manning, played his final game there.

Other notable lines include Oregon as a 3-point road favorite against USC, LSU as an 8.5-point home favorite against Texas A&M, and Florida as a 3.5-point home favorite against Ole Miss. The model has locked in exact score predictions for every FBS game, which can be found at SportsLine.

Full Week 4 college football odds and lines

Here is a look at the complete slate of notable Week 4 games, with lines and over/unders as of Thursday:

• Thursday, Sep. 24: Liberty at Coastal Carolina (+2.5, 50.5)
• Friday, Sep. 25: Army at Temple (+3, 48.5); Navy at UAB (+7, 51.5); Northwestern at Indiana (-21, 49.5); Clemson at California (+1.5, 50.5)
• Saturday, Sep. 26: Texas at Tennessee (+4.5, 55.5); Illinois at Ohio State (-27.5, 53.5); Oklahoma at Georgia (-14, 44.5); Ole Miss at Florida (-3.5, 58.5); Iowa at Michigan (-5.5, 38.5); Wisconsin at Penn State (-10, 44.5); South Carolina at Alabama (-12.5, 53.5); Texas A&M at LSU (-8.5, 51.5); Oregon at USC (+3, 61.5); Missouri at Mississippi State (-6.5, 58.5)

Where can I see the full college football score predictions?

The SportsLine model's exact score predictions and best bets for every Week 4 matchup are available exclusively at SportsLine. With a proven track record and a profitable 22-19 start to the season, the model offers valuable insight for fans and bettors looking to make informed decisions.

For Iowa fans, the key question is whether the Hawkeyes can cover the 5.5-point spread against Michigan. The model's projections suggest a close game, but the full score prediction is waiting at SportsLine.