Trump Approval Slides in Iowa, But GOP Holds Edge in Senate Race

President Donald Trump's approval rating has dipped into negative territory in Iowa and other states with competitive Senate races this year. While Democrats see an opening to expand the midterm battlefield, Republicans maintain significant structural advantages in states like Iowa, where Trump won by roughly 13 points in 2024. The race to succeed retiring Senator Joni Ernst is rated Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report, giving the GOP a clear edge heading into November.

What the Iowa Senate Race Polls Show

Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is facing state legislator Josh Turek in the race to replace Ernst. Iowa has shifted steadily toward Republicans in recent cycles, and the state's conservative lean gives Hinson a strong foundation.

A recent internal poll from Global Strategy Group, a Democratic-affiliated firm, showed Turek with a narrow 2-point lead at 47 percent to Hinson's 45 percent. The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted June 8 through 11, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning the race falls within a statistical tie.

Internal polls commissioned by campaigns often favor the candidate who paid for them, and observers note that Turek's slim lead relies on a survey conducted by a firm with Democratic ties. The Cook Political Report continues to rate the race as Lean Republican, reflecting Iowa's strong GOP tilt.

Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Declined

Trump's approval has slipped since he returned to office in January 2025, largely driven by economic frustration. The cost of living and higher gas prices amid the Iran war have weighed on voter sentiment, even in states that backed Trump by wide margins.

According to Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters, Trump's net approval rating in Iowa sits at negative 13 points. The data includes 111,661 responses nationwide since Trump took office.

Raymond La Raja, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told Newsweek that Trump's low approval ratings could cost Republican candidates some support. However, he cautioned that the election remains months away and that Democratic candidates need to avoid mistakes that shift attention away from the economy.

A Bureau of Labor Statistics report this month found that prices rose 0.5 percent in May, driven largely by spiking fuel costs tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.2 percent from 3.8 percent in April, the highest reading since April 2023.

Can Democrats Really Flip Red States Like Iowa?

Democrats face a steep climb in states Trump won by double digits. Along with Iowa, the party is targeting Alaska, Ohio and Texas, all of which backed Trump by comfortable margins. In each of those states, Trump's net approval rating is underwater, but the underlying partisan lean remains a major hurdle for Democratic candidates.

Chandler James, a political science professor at the University of Oregon, noted that approval ratings alone do not decide elections.