Trump Endorsement Tested in Alabama Senate Runoff After Iowa Loss

Alabama voters head to the polls Tuesday for a Republican Senate runoff that puts President Donald Trump's endorsement record back in the spotlight, just weeks after his preferred candidate for Iowa governor fell short of the nomination.

What Is the Alabama Senate Runoff About?

Republican voters will choose between Congressman Barry Moore and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson to succeed U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who decided to run for governor instead of seeking a second term. Moore led the May 19 primary with roughly 39% of the vote, while Hudson captured about 26%. State Attorney General Steve Marshall finished a close third at 25%, but since no candidate cleared 50%, the top two advance to the runoff.

Moore, a third-term congressman representing Alabama's 1st Congressional District, carries Trump's endorsement into Tuesday's vote. Hudson, a former Navy SEAL who owns a security and weapons training company and founded a nonprofit fighting human trafficking, is counting on strong turnout in urban areas to close the gap.

Why Does This Matter for Iowa Conservatives?

The Alabama runoff offers the latest test of Trump's influence over Republican primary voters. Trump's endorsement record has been nearly perfect at the ballot box, but the streak took a hit earlier in June when his pick for Iowa governor failed to secure the nomination.

For Iowa conservatives watching closely, the Alabama result could signal whether the Iowa loss was an isolated event or part of a broader shift in how Republican voters weigh Trump's backing against other factors. Alabama is reliably red territory, where Trump won roughly two out of every three votes against Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race, making it a strong test case for endorsement power.

Where Do the Candidates Draw Their Support?

Moore's base of support runs deep in his home 1st Congressional District along the Florida border and the Gulf Coast. He also won pluralities across Central Alabama, including Montgomery, and posted more modest margins in the north and northeast along the Tennessee and Georgia borders.

Hudson's path to victory runs through Jefferson County, the state's most populous county and home to Birmingham. He posted a 19-percentage-point lead there in the primary with 45% of the vote. Expanding that margin Tuesday is critical to his chances.

Moore holds an advantage in the key county of Madison, the state's second largest and home to Huntsville. Moore received about 34% of the vote there in May, while Hudson placed third with roughly 22%.

What Other Races Are on the Ballot?

Republicans will also settle runoffs for lieutenant governor, attorney general, agriculture commissioner and other state offices. On the Democratic side, voters will choose between attorney and former Midfield Municipal Court Judge Everett Wess, who led the primary with about 40%, and Dakarai Larriett, a former corporate executive and policing reform advocate who received about 29%.

Primaries for four of Alabama's seven congressional districts were postponed to an Aug. 11 special primary following a U.S. Supreme Court decision that prompted several southern states to redraw their congressional maps. The 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th Districts will vote in August, while the 5th District holds its Democratic runoff Tuesday.

What Are the Voting Rules for the Runoff?

Alabama operates under a crossover voting ban. Voters who cast a ballot in a partisan primary on May 19 may only vote in the runoff of the same party. Registered voters who sat out the primary entirely may vote in either party's runoff. The state has roughly 3.8 million registered voters.

Turnout is expected to drop significantly from the primary. In the 2022 Republican Senate runoff, total votes fell from about 647,000 in the primary to roughly 402,000. In 2020, when Tuberville first ran, votes dropped from about 718,000 to 551,000.

Alabama remains one of the only states in the country without in-person early voting. In the 2024 primaries, only about 4% of Democratic voters and 1% of Republican voters cast ballots by mail.

When Will We Know the Results?

Polls close at 7 p.m. CT. In the May 19 primary, the AP first reported results 28 minutes after polls closed. The final vote update came around 12:54 a.m. ET, with more than 99.9% of votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will only declare a winner when no path remains for a trailing candidate to close the gap. Alabama does have an automatic recount law, but a 2010 opinion from the state attorney general determined it does not apply to primaries.

What Comes Next After Tuesday?

Tuesday marks 56 days until the special congressional primaries on Aug. 11 and 140 days until the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The winners of Tuesday's runoffs will advance to the general election ballot in the fall.

Can Trump's Endorsement Carry Moore Across the Finish Line?

Trump's backing remains a powerful force in Republican primaries, particularly in deep-red states like Alabama. Moore has leveraged the endorsement throughout the runoff campaign, banking on the same MAGA energy that carried Trump to dominant victories in the state.

However, the Iowa governor's race showed that endorsements alone do not guarantee victory. Hudson has positioned himself as the outsider candidate with a background in national security and anti-trafficking work, appealing to voters looking for fresh leadership rather than another career politician.

The outcome Tuesday will give Iowa conservatives a clearer picture of where the Republican electorate stands as the 2026 midterms approach.