President Donald Trump will rally in Sioux City on Thursday, October 22, to boost Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson, part of his busiest campaign travel week of the midterm cycle, according to The Hill.
The Iowa stop anchors a seven-state blitz that begins Monday with rallies in Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan. The schedule signals where Republicans believe the fight for the Senate will be won and lost.
Why Sioux City Matters in the Senate Fight
Sioux City sits in Iowa's heavily Republican 4th Congressional District, a region with no competitive House race. That is exactly the point, according to Decision Desk HQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, who said the rally location reflects concerns about the Senate and GOP base turnout.
“That's basically the reddest part of Iowa is the western part of the state,” Skelley told The Hill. “And so, if you're concerned about Republican base turnout, it's a place where President Trump could be used very strategically to try to encourage some frustrated Republican voters, or you know, maybe less attuned Republican voters, to go out and cast a ballot in a very important Senate race.”
Hinson, currently a congresswoman from Marion, is running for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Chuck Grassley. A recent GOP pollster argued that blue wave talk is overhyped and the Iowa Senate seat is likely safe, but national forecasters still see the state as part of a competitive Senate map.
Republicans Betting on the Senate, Not the House
The president's itinerary tells the story of the party's 2026 strategy. His stops include deep red states such as Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, along with Kansas and Texas, where Democratic Senate candidates are running in toss-up races.
According to projections by Decision Desk HQ, The Hill's election partner, Republicans have just a 23 percent chance of holding the House majority. The Senate is closer to a coin flip, with Democrats holding a 56 percent chance of winning control compared to 44 percent for the GOP.
“That is the conventional wisdom: the House is gone. It's: protect the Senate with a possible expanding map,” one Republican strategist told The Hill.
Decision Desk HQ's latest forecast gives Democrats a likely 235-200 advantage in the House and a narrow 51-49 edge in the Senate.
RNC Says Trump Is Defying Midterm History
Republican National Committee national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said the travel schedule is a deliberate attempt to break the typical midterm pattern, when the president's party usually loses ground.
“Republicans are thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent,” Baldassarre said. “The president is barnstorming the country in strategic areas and pouring resources into battleground races to tout his historic achievements, giving Republicans a boost to defy history in November.”
A White House official added that Trump uses the rallies to highlight administration wins in each region he visits, noting the stops are often chosen for their reach into neighboring media markets.
“With finite resources, he is going places where he can make the biggest impact,” the official said. “President Trump's message and wins resonate everywhere and the President wants to communicate with all voters.”
Trump Confident Despite Polling Headwinds
Trump expressed confidence about November when speaking to reporters on the South Lawn on Monday.
“I feel good,” the president said, while adding that “a lot of the polls are rigged.”
“I'm the one that's doing the rallies, that's taking people into a winning position,” Trump said. “When you take a look at what's happened since I've been doing these massive, totally sold out rallies, nobody's ever seen anything like it.”
DDHQ's tracker puts the president's approval rating roughly 20 points underwater, driven by voter frustration over the economy, the war in Iran, and immigration. He has urged Republican voters to “pretend I'm on the ballot” and turn out in force.
What Comes Next for Iowa
Thursday's Sioux City rally is the only announced Iowa stop in the current travel stretch. It follows the president's pattern of pairing Senate battlegrounds with base-stronghold venues, including a Wichita rally Monday for Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas and a Clemson, South Carolina, event Wednesday for Senator Darlene Graham.
For Iowa Republicans, the visit is a chance to lock in western Iowa turnout early, with in-person voting already underway across the state. The Hinson campaign has not announced additional details about the event beyond the location and date.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Trump's rally in Sioux City?
President Trump is scheduled to rally in Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday, October 22, 2026, to support Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson.
Why did Trump choose Sioux City for the rally?
Analysts say western Iowa is the state's reddest region, making it a strategic spot to motivate Republican base voters in a Senate race where turnout matters.
What are the odds Republicans keep the Senate?
Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 44 percent chance of holding the Senate majority, compared with 56 percent for Democrats.