Trump's $400M War Chest Raises Questions About GOP Midterm Commitment

With midterm elections just 57 days away, Iowa Republicans are asking a pointed question: does President Donald Trump actually want to keep the GOP in control of Congress? The answer may depend on how you read his campaign strategy, and it has significant implications for Iowa's closely watched Senate race.

Despite public confidence in his popularity, Trump's political operation has yet to deploy its massive financial resources. MAGA Inc., the Trump-supporting super PAC, is sitting on over $400 million that could make a decisive difference in tight races across the country, including Iowa, Texas, and Ohio.

What has Trump done for GOP candidates lately?

Back in April, Axios reported that Trump's operation planned to start unloading its enormous war chest around Memorial Day. That apparently didn't happen on anything like the promised scale. Now it's Labor Day, and it still hasn't happened.

Yes, Labor Day is traditionally the start of campaign season, so Trump can claim he's doing everything he needs to do. But there is another tradition to keep in mind: presidents generally see their party get clobbered in the midterms, losing anywhere from 10 to 60 seats.

Vice President JD Vance's campaign stop in Michigan to support Mike Rogers in his uphill battle against socialist Abdul El-Sayed was notable mainly because it was one of the few such events attended by either Vance or Trump.

Why might Trump hold back his resources?

Some political observers suggest Trump may actually benefit from a Democratic victory. Here's the thinking: Trump's historic legacy rests in large part on his ability to paint the Democratic Party as a threat to American values. He's been hindered for the past two years because no one takes Democrats seriously right now.

But if they actually regain control of Congress, the threat of their socialist policies will loom large. Trump can reclaim his mantle as the protector of American ideals and traditions, and use his veto pen as a mighty sword to hold off Democrats' attempts to dismantle the Electoral College and radically alter the Supreme Court.

If, instead, Republicans retain their narrow lead in the House and Senate, the president will be stuck with two more years of bellyaching about how his own party can't get anything done. Not a good look for legacy builders.

The political comfort of having enemies

Experience has taught us that this New York brawler is often politically more comfortable with enemies than with allies. He knows what to do with Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer. Attack them. Ridicule them. Blame them. Give them nicknames. Rally his supporters against them.

Republican congressional majorities are much more inconvenient. When Republicans control the White House, House, and Senate, Trump owns Washington. There is nobody else to blame when Congress doesn't enact his program.

Now imagine January 2027 with a Democratic House. Suddenly every failure has a villain. The Democrats won't secure the border. The Democrats won't cut taxes. The Democrats won't fund my program. The Democrats are obstructing the will of the American people.

And every subpoena, investigation, and impeachment threat becomes political oxygen for Trump. He gets to be persecuted again. That is terrain on which he thrives.

What this means for Iowa voters

For Iowa Republicans, the stakes are personal. The state's Senate race is considered competitive, and national resources could make the difference between holding the seat and losing it to a Democrat.

Last week, Trump told Republican lawmakers that they should have no fear, he is coming to the rescue. In particular, he said he would campaign in the last month before the Nov. 3 election for all 35 candidates in what he considered crucial races.

But his advice to those candidates continued to raise questions about Trump's intentions. He is still urging Republicans to run on their record, on his record, and that has to be scary. After all, Democrats are running on Trump's record too, reminding voters just how little they like it.

Will Trump spend the money before November?

So if Trump wants us to believe him when he says to vote Republican, he needs to do what I said at the start of this column. Put his money where his mouth is.

Mr. President, please don't preserve your $400 million war chest to fund your presidential library. Spend it now. Spend it hard. Spend it wisely. Protect your Republican majority, and dear Lord, save us from yet another impeachment.

Frank Miele, retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His book