Trump's October Rally Blitz Targets GOP Turnout, But Iowa's Vance Visit Raises Questions

President Donald Trump is launching a month-long rally marathon across the country to energize Republican voters ahead of the midterm elections, even as his approval ratings hover near historic lows for a president at this stage. The tour kicks off Thursday in Oklahoma, a state Trump won decisively, and includes stops in Alabama, Ohio, Nebraska, and potentially Alaska and South Carolina. For Iowa voters, the news hits close to home: Vice President JD Vance recently campaigned in a solid-red part of the state, and the GOP's strategy of focusing on friendly territory is drawing both support and skepticism.

Trump's aggressive travel schedule comes as his approval rating sits at 38 percent, according to an average of recent polls compiled by analyst Nate Silver. That's the lowest for any president before a midterm in over three decades. But Trump and his advisers argue that his presence on the trail is essential to boosting turnout among the Republican base, even in states where races aren't competitive.

Why is Trump starting his tour in deep-red states?

Trump's first stops are in Oklahoma, Alabama, and Nebraska, all states he won by wide margins. The decision to visit such friendly territory highlights his belief that he is the party's best messenger, and it reflects his personal involvement in campaign planning. Advisers say Trump has been shaping ads, talking points, and even the travel itinerary, often pushing back on staff recommendations with his own ideas.

In Oklahoma, Trump is honoring a request from Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Mazzei, who asked for a visit. Trump won all 77 counties in Oklahoma in both of his presidential runs, and Mazzei is not seen as vulnerable. Trump told reporters he's going 'to thank them' for their support.

What does this mean for Iowa and the GOP's midterm strategy?

Vice President JD Vance's recent campaign stop in a solid-red part of Iowa underscores the party's focus on firing up the base rather than courting swing voters. Some Republican strategists and Democrats have questioned the wisdom of spending time in safe territory, but one official involved in rally planning pushed back: 'Yes, the president is going to juice our voters. Why is that somehow a bad thing?'

The strategy is to maximize turnout among reliable Republicans, even if it means skipping some competitive districts. Trump's schedule averages five to seven rallies a week through October, with some weeks featuring multiple events in a single day. He has compared the pace to his pre-election tours in 2020 and 2024, saying he's 'going to do that again.'

Can Trump's rallies actually help Republicans in tight races?

Trump's track record is mixed. In 2018, he held more than 20 rallies in the month before the midterms, yet Democrats gained 40 House seats. However, Republicans kept the Senate and picked up two seats. In 2020, despite losing the presidency, Trump's party gained House seats, which he credits to his rally efforts.

This year, the GOP faces tough Senate and governor's races in states like Ohio, where Trump will appear Saturday. Nebraska's Republican senator is in a close reelection fight, and Alaska is on the list for a similar reason. Trump may also return to South Carolina, where he helped Sen. Darline Graham narrowly win a special primary runoff in August.

Will Trump visit Iowa?

There's no word yet on a Trump rally in Iowa, but Vance's recent visit suggests the state remains on the radar. One Trump adviser said the schedule could shift based on 'the political climate' over the next month, leaving the door open for additional stops.

For Iowans, the takeaway is clear: the GOP is betting on Trump's star power to drive turnout, even in places where the outcome seems certain. Whether that strategy pays off in competitive races will be tested in November.

Trump himself remains confident, telling a White House crowd Wednesday: 'They like to say, Oh, nobody wants him. Well, everybody that has me wins.'