Trump's South Carolina win shows endorsement power still matters
Senator Darline Graham's narrow victory in South Carolina's Republican primary Tuesday night proves President Donald Trump's endorsement remains a powerful force in GOP politics, even as his recent track record has shown some cracks.
With 99 percent of the vote counted, Graham secured 52.5 percent over Representative Ralph Norman's 47.6 percent, according to The Associated Press. The win came after Trump personally campaigned for Graham in Myrtle Beach last Friday and MAGA Inc., the super PAC affiliated with the president, poured money into the race.
Why Graham's win was far from guaranteed
Graham entered the runoff facing serious headwinds. During a debate with Norman, she stumbled when asked about the South China Sea and Taiwan, admitting, “I'm not that informed on national security.”
Her late brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, was a fierce hawk on China and Russia who had visited Ukraine shortly before his sudden death last month. The contrast was stark, and the gaffe threatened to derail her campaign.
Yet Trump's endorsement and the machinery behind it proved decisive. The president's ability to rally his base, even in a low-turnout runoff, made the difference.
Trump's endorsement record: wins and losses
Trump has been sensitive about his endorsement record recently. On Truth Social, he pushed back against claims he had lost his touch: “My Endorsements are stronger than ever — Not to mention the fact that good people are getting elected who never had the chance!”
Historically, Trump's backing has been a golden ticket. His endorsements helped Ron DeSantis win Florida's governorship in 2018 and Brian Kemp take Georgia. In 2022, JD Vance's Senate bid in Ohio was languishing until Trump stepped in, setting Vance on a path to the vice presidency.
But recent losses have raised questions. In Georgia, his pick for governor, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, lost to Rick Jackson. In Iowa, his late endorsement of Rep. Randy Feenstra in the gubernatorial primary fell short as Zach Lahn prevailed. Minnesota Republicans criticized his backing of Mike Lindell, and his picks in Wyoming and Tennessee also came up short.
What this means for Iowa Republicans
For Iowa voters, the lesson is clear: Trump's endorsement still carries weight, but it is not a guaranteed win. Candidates who earn his backing must still run strong campaigns and connect with voters on local issues.
The president himself acknowledged the challenge, telling the South Carolina crowd, “They say that Trump does great when he's on the ballot, but when he's not on the ballot, his people don't come and they don't vote for senators, congressmen and other Republicans. So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Just come and vote.”
Trump's focus shifts as midterms approach
Trump has not barnstormed swing states for allies the way he did in 2018, save for events in Georgia and Michigan. MAGA Inc. holds roughly $400 million in cash but has not deployed it widely to protect endangered Republicans.
Instead, the president appears focused on refurbishing Washington monuments, construction projects, and navigating the Iran war. That focus could cost Republicans their congressional majority in his final two years in office.
For now, Graham's win offers Trump a much-needed victory lap. But the narrow margin and recent losses suggest the endorsement alone is no longer the lock it once was.
Frequently asked questions
Did Trump's endorsement secure Graham's victory?
Yes, Trump's endorsement and campaign support played a decisive role in Graham's narrow win, though she still faced a competitive challenge from Norman.
How has Trump's endorsement record fared recently?
Trump has seen mixed results, with notable wins like Graham and Vance but losses in Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota, Wyoming, and Tennessee.
What does this mean for Iowa's upcoming elections?
Iowa candidates should view Trump's endorsement as a significant boost but not a guarantee, emphasizing the need for strong local campaigns and voter turnout efforts.