Vance: Midterm Results Will Factor Into 2028 White House Decision

Vice President JD Vance acknowledged Thursday that Republicans face an uphill battle in next month's midterm elections, and he said the outcome will be a key data point as he weighs a potential 2028 presidential run.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force Two after a campaign stop in Florida, Vance said historical trends make midterms tough for the party holding the White House, but he expressed cautious optimism that momentum is shifting in the GOP's direction.

“Historically there's always a bit of an uphill climb, and I think you definitely sense that,” Vance said. “I also think you can sense a sense of cautious optimism, in the sense that, you know, people feel like the numbers are sort of moving, maybe in our direction.”

What did Vance say about the midterm climate?

Vance acknowledged that Republicans face headwinds, including President Donald Trump's approval ratings, the ongoing war in Iran, rising gas prices, and growing public skepticism about artificial intelligence and the data centers powering it.

“Politically, there's just a recognition that it's always going to be hard to win a midterm when you have the White House, the Senate and the House,” he said.

Despite those challenges, Vance said the GOP message is starting to break through: that Republicans are solving problems created by Democrats, and that the next wave of Democratic candidates would be worse.

“I think people recognize that the message is starting to penetrate a little bit,” Vance said. “Obviously, we're going to find out in about 35 days whether that carries the day.”

How will midterm results affect Vance's 2028 decision?

Vance, 42, has consistently said his focus is on his current job and helping Republicans win in November. But he admitted Thursday that the results will inform his decision about running to succeed Trump in 2028.

“You make these decisions by collecting as much information and trying to make a wise decision,” he said. “Regardless of what happens over the next 35 days, there will be new information, new things you have to make a decision over.”

When pressed on whether substantial GOP losses could convince him the climate isn't favorable for a presidential bid, Vance stayed noncommittal.

“Right now, I try not to think too much in hypotheticals,” he said. “I'm just going to try to do as well as I can and encourage people to elect the candidates that I think are good.”

What did Vance say about Ted Cruz's 2028 ambitions?

Vance also addressed a potential rival: Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. Cruz recently said Vance doesn't have a lock on the 2028 nomination and framed the party's future as a choice between small-government conservatism and a “big-government, nanny state party.”

Vance dismissed Cruz's positioning, saying it's obvious Cruz is running for president right now, while Vance is focused on helping Republicans win this fall.

“It is really obvious to me that, at this very moment, Ted Cruz is running for president,” Vance said. “At this moment, I'm not. I'm trying to help elect Republicans.”

Cruz has been raising money and campaigning for midterm candidates in early primary states like Iowa and South Carolina, and he's expected to campaign for Senate candidates in Alaska, Texas, and North Carolina.

What did Vance say about gas prices, data centers, and AI?

Vance acknowledged frustration over high gas prices, saying it was a topic he discussed with Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds backstage at Thursday's rally.

On data centers, Vance took a middle-ground stance, acknowledging local concerns while noting that some companies have done a good job sharing benefits with communities.

“In some cases the companies building the data centers have done a good job of ensuring the community shares the benefits,” he said. “And then in some communities, obviously, you don't see that happening, and you see more of a pushback.”

His tone differs from Trump's, who in August called data centers a “Golden Goose” and criticized opponents as wanting to be “backwards and poor.”

On AI, Vance expressed both enthusiasm and caution, drawing a comparison to the early days of the Covid pandemic.

“The risk is real, just like it was with Covid, but the remedy was not necessarily appropriate or tailored to the risk,” he said.

Vance said his fear is that regulators will create a regime that shields AI companies from liability rather than forcing responsibility on those creating the products.

“My fear with AI right now is that we respond not by forcing more responsibility on the companies that are creating the products but by creating a regulatory regime that actually shields them from liability,” he said.

Why this matters for Iowa

Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status makes the 2028 Republican presidential race especially relevant to Hawkeye State voters. Both Vance and Cruz are expected to court Iowa conservatives heavily in the coming years.

Cruz has already been campaigning in Iowa, and Vance's comments suggest he'll be a major presence as well. For Iowans, the midterm results could shape the field they see on the campaign trail in 2027 and beyond.