Where Trump's Millions Are Flowing: 7 Races Shaping the 2026 Midterms

The 2026 midterm election is shaping up to be one of the most expensive in American history, with national political organizations pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into a handful of battleground races. From Texas to Michigan to Iowa, the money battle is intensifying as Election Day approaches on November 3.

President Donald Trump has said he plans to allocate between $400 million and $500 million from his political operation to support Republican candidates, according to Reuters. His No Going Back PAC has already reserved more than $74 million in television advertising for competitive House and Senate contests.

Here are seven races where the scale and direction of campaign spending are making them critical pieces of the 2026 congressional money puzzle.

Texas Senate: Talarico vs. Paxton

The Texas Senate race has become one of the most closely watched contests in the country, with Democrat James Talarico facing Republican Ken Paxton. Trump's MAGA Inc. has put about $10 million into the Texas contest, while Elon Musk's America PAC has also spent money to support Paxton, reported Reuters. Musk's PAC allocated about $2.6 million to the race.

Talarico, meanwhile, has built a substantial campaign operation of his own. He raised $28 million during the second quarter, putting him among the leading Democratic Senate fundraisers in competitive races, reported The Washington Post. The Houston Chronicle has since reported a total fundraising figure of about $88.2 million for Talarico.

The Texas contest brings together two different sources of campaign money. Talarico has built a large candidate fundraising operation, while Republican-aligned outside groups have committed significant sums to support Paxton. Trump endorsed Paxton in the Republican contest after backing him over incumbent Senator John Cornyn.

Michigan Senate: El-Sayed vs. Rogers

Michigan is another major target for national political spending. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing Republican Mike Rogers in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Gary Peters.

The Associated Press reported on September 16 that Trump's affiliated groups had reserved more than $130 million in advertising across the midterm map. Senate Majority PAC has committed another $10 million to Michigan, bringing its total commitment in the race to $30 million, reported Axios.

Earlier in the year, outside groups played a major role in the Democratic primary. Axios reported in July that super PACs backing Haley Stevens had reserved $26.9 million in television advertising compared with $2.1 million for El-Sayed during the final weeks before the August primary. El-Sayed ultimately emerged as the Democratic candidate and now faces Rogers in the general election.

Ohio Senate: Husted vs. Brown

Ohio has also emerged as a major Senate spending battleground. Republican Senator Jon Husted faces Democrat Sherrod Brown, who is seeking a return to the Senate.

Ohio was among the most expensive Senate contests in the 2026 election cycle, reported Axios. The broader Senate advertising market had reached about $390 million after Labor Day, with Ohio among the states receiving heavy spending. One Nation, a conservative group aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, had reserved $28 million in television advertising for Ohio, reported Axios.

The race has also generated a large volume of negative advertising. FactCheck.org examined Democratic advertisements that sought to connect Husted to a bribery scandal. The organization said the advertisements made the connection even though Husted had not been charged with wrongdoing.

Georgia Senate: Ossoff's Huge War Chest

Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has one of the largest individual campaign war chests among candidates in competitive 2026 Senate races. Ossoff had raised about $42 million, the highest amount among the battleground Senate candidates covered in a Washington Post comparison. A later report put his cash on hand at about $42.6 million as of June 30.

His Republican opponent, Mike Collins, had about $2 million in his campaign account at the time. The national Republican Senate super PAC had $239 million on hand compared with $126 million for the equivalent Democratic group, according to disclosures cited by The Washington Post in July.

North Carolina Senate: Cooper vs. Whatley

North Carolina is another major Senate contest attracting national attention. Democrat Roy Cooper, the former governor, is running against Republican Michael Whatley. Trump travelled to North Carolina to support Whatley and seek support from voters who backed him in the 2024 presidential election, reported Reuters.

Trump's No Going Back PAC had reserved more than $74 million in television advertising for competitive House and Senate races across six states, reported Reuters. The PAC had also committed $15.7 million to Michigan, while MAGA Inc. and Musk's America PAC had put money into Texas.

New York's 17th Congressional District

The money battle is not limited to Senate races. New York's 17th Congressional District has also become a target for outside spending. Republican Representative Mike Lawler is facing Democrat Cait Conley in the district.

Trump's affiliated political groups were putting more than $130 million into advertising across the mid-term campaign, with House contests among the targets, reported AP. Safety and Affordability PAC was focusing on House races, including efforts to protect vulnerable Republican incumbents such as Lawler.

Lawler released an advertisement attacking Conley over the issue of AI data centres, reported The New York Post. That issue gives the race a local economic dimension while national groups focus on the broader political battle.

Iowa House Races: Where Iran Is Changing the Spending Equation

Iowa provides another example of how a national issue can affect individual House races. Republican Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks joined Democrats and other Republicans in backing a resolution that sought to limit Trump's authority to continue military action in Iran without congressional approval, reported AP.

The issue has created a difficult political calculation for lawmakers in competitive districts. Their votes on Iran can become part of campaign advertising and fundraising efforts as the November election approaches.

One Nation had reserved $11 million in television advertising for Iowa as part of a wider effort to protect Republican Senate seats and strengthen the party's position in states that have traditionally leaned Republican, reported Axios.

What This Means for Iowa Voters

The Iowa House races show how campaign spending can follow political issues. National organizations do not have to spend only on the traditional themes of taxes, immigration or the economy. Foreign policy can also become part of the advertising battle when lawmakers take positions that differ from the president or their party leadership.

For Iowa voters, the key takeaway is that the money flowing into these races comes from multiple sources. Candidates raise money through their own campaigns. Political parties maintain national funds. Super PACs make independent expenditures. Wealthy donors can also provide large sums to political organizations.

The figures also change quickly. Advertising reservations can be increased, cancelled or shifted to another market. A campaign's fundraising total and its advertising spending are therefore different measures.

The final totals will depend on spending decisions made before Election Day on November 3. The figures available in September show where candidates and political organizations have committed money so far, but they are not the final cost of the 2026 US mid-term elections.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much is Trump planning to spend on the 2026 midterms?

Trump has said he plans to allocate between $400 million and $500 million from his political operation for the mid-term elections, reported Reuters. His No Going Back PAC has already reserved more than $74 million in television advertising for competitive House and Senate contests.

Which Iowa races are attracting national campaign spending?

Republican Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks are in competitive districts that have drawn national attention. One Nation had reserved $11 million in television advertising for Iowa as part of a wider effort to protect Republican seats.

What is the difference between candidate fundraising and outside spending?

Candidate fundraising refers to money raised by a campaign directly. Advertising commitments can come from campaigns, political parties or outside groups. Super PACs can also spend independently in support of or against candidates without coordinating with the campaigns.