Who Comes After Trump? Iowa GOP Voters Weigh Vance vs. Rubio
As Republicans rally behind President Donald Trump ahead of November's midterms, a bigger question looms for the party's future: who inherits the movement when he's gone? At this week's GOP convention in Dallas, two names kept coming up: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Trump, 80, remains the dominant figure in the Republican Party and has not endorsed a successor. The Constitution bars him from seeking a third term, making the midterms an early test of which potential heir can best defend his record and carry the MAGA movement forward.
Vance holds early edge in GOP succession race
Vance appears to have the early advantage. A Focal Data/Financial Times poll in August put him at 42 percent among Republicans, well ahead of Rubio's 18 percent, though other surveys show a closer race.
Trump has publicly fueled speculation, calling a potential Vance-Rubio ticket a dream team without backing either man.
Vance supporters see the 42-year-old as the more natural ideological heir, closely tied to MAGA grassroots and steeped in the economic nationalism reshaping Republican views on trade, immigration, and working-class politics.
He's the closest to the president, said Tom Hoffman Jr., a New York businessman attending the convention. I think he's been a great running mate and a great vice president so far, and I think he's earned it.
Rubio offers experience and polish
Rubio, 55, presents a different case. The former Florida senator has built a reputation as one of Trump's top foreign-policy lieutenants, with supporters praising his experience and political skill.
Kyle Hermann, a 29-year-old teacher from California, praised Rubio's charm and his wit and said he hopes both men can avoid damaging each other in a primary battle.
Rubio has downplayed talk of another presidential run, and the field may not be limited to two. Senator Ted Cruz has made increasingly visible moves toward another bid, including repeated trips to Iowa and outreach to potential supporters. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been floated as a contender, though he calls such reports 100 percent false. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. also remain in the conversation.
Iowa's role in the GOP's post-Trump future
Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses make the state a critical testing ground for any would-be successor. Cruz's repeated visits signal that contenders recognize Iowa's outsized role in shaping the party's direction.
For some delegates, however, neither leading contender can fully replace Trump.
They can't fulfill what Trump started, said Angie Fisher, a 54-year-old appliance-store buyer from South Carolina.
Vance is tied to the party's nationalist-populist wing, while Rubio is seen as more conventional on foreign policy and alliances. Rubio delivered the convention's keynote address Thursday, though Trump closed with his own remarks.
Ed Williams, a 59-year-old engineer from Dallas, called Vance very charismatic and said he hits the issues important to the America that I want.
Some activists in Dallas aren't ready to move on from Trump at all, saying they'd back him again in 2028 if a third term were possible.
Unfortunately, I wish that he could, but I don't think that can happen, said Rosie Swanson, a 72-year-old retired Dallas resident. If he did, I'd vote for him.
What's at stake for Iowa voters
For Iowa Republicans, the succession question matters directly. The caucuses will likely serve as an early sorting mechanism for the party's future direction, and voters here will have a major say in whether the movement stays with a nationalist-populist like Vance or shifts toward a more traditional conservative like Rubio.
The choice ultimately comes down to which version of Trumpism Republicans want to preserve, and Iowa will help answer that question.